Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe474bb8a06596057ef8626cf7e91f64751375a5826be63453ebbe538ac4cb3d7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $989,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $822,718
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $989,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 491 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa121…5123backed No | 1c | 120,651$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.93 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -60.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e21…b2f5backed Yes | 18c | 75,162$13,535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61,626.72 | 188 | 10.1%19 W · 169 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e22…3993backed Yes | 49c | 43,960$21,365 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,594.55 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | +4.6wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +81%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6139…6b7abacked Yes | 29c | 32,721$9,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,094.19 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.23per pick | 46cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 16c | 31,970$5,081 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,889.49 | 230 | 3.9%9 W · 221 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 7cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd649…c561backed Yes | 59c | 18,240$10,753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,487.24 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 41c | 16,106$6,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,484.14 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e9e…7bd8backed Yes | 57c | 12,909$7,414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,495.08 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f76…8e57backed Yes | 25c | 11,837$2,953 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,883.45 | 106 | 20.8%22 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f11…b63fbacked Yes | 61c | 11,224$6,897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,326.2 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0681…f713backed No | 37c | 7,888$2,944 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,944.38 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x62dd…869abacked Yes | 10c | 7,804$794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,010.26 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…547dbacked Yes | 43c | 5,977$2,576 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,401 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -4.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…222dbacked Yes | 14c | 5,127$717 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,409.84 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 39c | 4,797$1,886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,910.96 | 51 | 39.2%20 W · 31 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a4…36d8backed Yes | 26c | 4,603$1,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,400.79 | 132 | 9.8%13 W · 119 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x358d…e216backed Yes | 31c | 4,527$1,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,102.65 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 17c | 4,402$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,672.63 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e40…fe2dbacked No | 78c | 4,224$3,315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,314.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286e…adb7backed No | 51c | 4,080$2,091 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,090.99 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe53e…7bb3backed Yes | 21c | 4,051$864 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.57 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +134.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 12c | 4,039$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,548.16 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a05…2ddabacked Yes | 24c | 3,897$928 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,969.15 | 62 | 17.7%11 W · 51 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…3a04backed No | 34c | 3,890$1,327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,326.75 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c91…3910backed Yes | 48c | 3,847$1,828 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,018.53 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb51b…06b7backed Yes | 28c | 3,741$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,678.1 | 104 | 19.2%20 W · 84 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes | 17c | 3,620$603 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,017.16 | 656 | 23.2%152 W · 504 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadef…d0acbacked Yes | 57c | 3,529$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,528.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56fc…e6b2backed Yes | 45c | 3,473$1,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.33 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 23cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…5af5backed Yes | 26c | 3,371$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,492.87 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes | 22c | 3,354$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,626.9 | 123 | 11.4%14 W · 109 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -43%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3726backed Yes | 62c | 3,086$1,924 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,162.15 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x98f5…7226backed Yes | 55c | 3,049$1,691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,358.37 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cdd…76dcbacked No | 62c | 2,986$1,851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,850.82 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 41cpaid | -74.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf23…3f2ebacked No | 3c | 2,868$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed Yes | 57c | 2,845$1,622 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,222.12 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 12c | 2,844$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,509.37 | 143 | 14.7%21 W · 122 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0e1…d6f0backed Yes | 30c | 2,693$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,893.29 | 239 | 14.2%34 W · 205 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5930…f3fdbacked Yes | 25c | 2,631$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,978.9 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98ae…9c6ebacked Yes | 12c | 2,295$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,012.47 | 116 | 10.3%12 W · 104 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800b…9fd2backed Yes | 47c | 2,285$1,071 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,214.38 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…2d90backed Yes | 32c | 2,167$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,466.94 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f11…c876backed Yes | 16c | 2,119$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785.82 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +119.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf873…9ae1backed Yes | 29c | 2,095$613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,481.77 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes | 23c | 2,030$464 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,565.91 | 486 | 9.7%47 W · 439 L | +8.2wins | +0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc2…a7d9backed Yes | 13c | 2,027$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,762.9 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89e7…0ffabacked Yes | 56c | 2,000$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$877.1 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 1,870$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,623.72 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac18…7366backed Yes | 51c | 1,866$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$922.01 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +70.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…c50cbacked No | 57c | 1,861$1,070 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,069.53 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +48.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe157…6db1backed Yes | 45c | 1,791$807 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$984.06 | 34 | 32.4%11 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df6…8458backed Yes | 34c | 1,770$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.08 | 80 | 31.3%25 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7e6…2cc5backed Yes | 9c | 1,739$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,586.51 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 13c | 1,738$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,512.05 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 17c | 1,710$298 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,411.36 | 114 | 21.1%24 W · 90 L | +2.1wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked Yes | 7c | 1,697$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,576.09 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 13cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabe4…1996backed Yes | 12c | 1,697$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,492.01 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf27…929ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,694$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$993.95 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…0934backed Yes | 8c | 1,599$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.46 | 53 | 9.4%5 W · 48 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 64c | 1,598$1,022 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.27 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 58cpaid | +40%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc54…680fbacked Yes | 32c | 1,567$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,073.21 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c81…3b0cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,550$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.51 | 34 | 17.6%6 W · 28 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0643…7b30backed Yes | 30c | 1,470$446 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,024.53 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Yes | 14c | 1,424$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,223.85 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 34c | 1,423$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$942.89 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a36…454bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,400$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,211.39 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb78e…30e3backed No | 39c | 1,370$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.28 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc52…a021backed No | 12c | 1,362$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.29 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -28%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd42b…48c8backed Yes | 19c | 1,350$252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,097.55 | 246 | 8.5%21 W · 225 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab8c…256ebacked Yes | 58c | 1,330$768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd22…9ef1backed Yes | 41c | 1,323$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$779.33 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc011…0a62backed No | 54c | 1,318$710 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$710.2 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa5…8232backed No | 63c | 1,312$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$824.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3258…9e52backed Yes | 9c | 1,294$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,180.47 | 71 | 9.9%7 W · 64 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -50%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18b2…24efbacked Yes | 33c | 1,224$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$822.69 | 156 | 19.2%30 W · 126 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 34c | 1,223$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.79 | 48 | 12.5%6 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b2…e0adbacked Yes | 15c | 1,210$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,025.39 | 68 | 16.2%11 W · 57 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 44c | 1,194$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.46 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…4f84backed Yes | 27c | 1,185$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.79 | 26 | 19.2%5 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x134a…9e42backed Yes | 43c | 1,145$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.22 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fbb…b5f9backed Yes | 20c | 1,118$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$889.73 | 47 | 25.5%12 W · 35 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7999…ee7ebacked Yes | 18c | 1,117$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.98 | 61 | 24.6%15 W · 46 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a71…a222backed Yes | 43c | 1,116$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$636.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Yes | 23c | 1,094$256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$837.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x088f…131bbacked Yes | 23c | 1,088$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.04 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…121abacked Yes | 75c | 1,076$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.69 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 12c | 1,039$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$912.94 | 170 | 12.9%22 W · 148 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…4fb2backed Yes | 38c | 1,032$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.38 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 29cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6f…b8acbacked Yes | 20c | 1,016$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$808.84 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…d48cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,005$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.07 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…33ccbacked Yes | 47c | 1,001$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.79 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$950 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 17cpaid | +47.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbed…aa02backed Yes | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840.16 | 93 | 8.6%8 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 28c | 999.98$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$722.99 | 253 | 11.5%29 W · 224 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb078…656cbacked No | 75c | 999.6$748 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.7 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5116…58c4backed Yes | 57c | 987.72$565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423.11 | 85 | 23.5%20 W · 65 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f9e…6ef5backed Yes | 12c | 944.11$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.87 | 66 | 18.2%12 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes | 18c | 939.55$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.71 | 70 | 22.9%16 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1239…f34cbacked Yes | 29c | 917.92$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.71 | 27 | 11.1%3 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.14per pick | 25cpaid | -64%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd1…669cbacked Yes | 27c | 902.26$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$662.26 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon tweet 325-349 times Jan 17-24?this page
- Will Elon tweet 300-324 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 350-374 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 375-399 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 400-424 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 425-449 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 450-474 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 475-499 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 500-524 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 525-549 times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet 550 or more times Jan 17-24?No won
- Will Elon tweet less than 300 times Jan 17-24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.