TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x5e22…3993

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
141
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Tweets, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 55 out of 100; worst World Politics at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 9, 2025, EST6931.9%22 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$1,834Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$1,834.5
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$630Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$629.71
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$674Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$673.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST-100%-$601.47
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$341Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+97%+$330.46
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$11,415Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+36.8%+$4,203.49
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$15,298Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15,297.52
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$331Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+155.7%+$515.17
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+33.4%+$43.8
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$19,272Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+42.5%+$8,197.04
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$239.88
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$173.33
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$5,518Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT+31.3%+$1,727.6
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 21 to October 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$2,197Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 28, 2025, EDT-100%-$2,196.77
Will Elon tweet between 850 and 899 times September 1–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.5
Will Elon tweet 225–239 times?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$138Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2025, EDT+236%+$325.38
Will Elon tweet 525–549 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,265Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,265.02
Will Elon tweet 470 or more times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2025, EDT+4,900%+$4,899.97
Will Elon tweet less than 215 times August 8–August 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$782Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$781.96
Will Elon tweet 375–389 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
Will Elon tweet 360–374 times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$3,009Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT+29.1%+$875.09
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times August 1–August 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 6, 2025, EDT+3,287.8%+$2,557.45
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$194.55
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$30.55
Will Elon tweet 255 or more times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$17.36
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST3935.9%14 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 39 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Faker (Lee Sang-hyeok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$2,035Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$2,035.27
Will Bdd (Gwak Bo-seong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$983Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$983.12
Will Gumayusi (Lee Min-hyeong) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$2,194.58
Will Oner (Mun Hyeon-jun) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$973Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$973.2
Will Keria (Ryu Min-seok) be named MVP in the 2025 League of Legends World Championship?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$317Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$316.62
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$6,117Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$6,117.24
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$18.77
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$2,106Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$2,106.39
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$1,970Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$1,969.76
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,990Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$1,989.86
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+194.1%+$56.61
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$94Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+40.8%+$38.41
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$79Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+284.6%+$226
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$600Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 2, 2025, EST+66.7%+$400
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$1,195Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+52.2%+$624.18
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$1,286Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+677.9%+$8,714.67
Games Total: O/U 4.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$59.86
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+300%+$315
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$390
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winnerbacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$1,265Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT+275%+$3,479.48
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$13,415Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+82.3%+$11,036.37
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 3 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$1,347Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,347.42
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 2 Winnerbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$1,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,799.53
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 - Game 1 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$500.88
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports (BO5)backed G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$1,729Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,728.53
Showing 25 of 39 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Dec 7, 2025, EST1241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Packers (-6.5)backed Bears · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$2,400
Spread: LAR (-9.5)backed LAR · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,546Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+96.4%+$2,454.27
Broncos vs. Raidersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$1,150Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST-100%-$1,150
Raiders vs. Chargersbacked Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$950Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$950
Vikings vs. Seahawks: O/U 41.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,610Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$2,610.24
Falcons vs. Jetsbacked Jets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+150%+$3,000
Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)backed Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$2,400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+108.3%+$2,600
Jaguars vs. Titansbacked Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$3,550Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+40.8%+$1,450
Cardinals vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,600Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$2,600
Cardinals vs. Buccaneersbacked Cardinals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,900Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$1,900
Chiefs vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST+170.3%+$630
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2025, EST-100%-$22.6
All 12 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+29.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2025, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick8cpaid+9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Music — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick26cpaid-3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Nov 29, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houston vs. Baylorbacked Houston · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$450Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+122.2%+$550
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zohran Mamdani win by 10-20%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$637Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+88.7%+$564.76
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Liverpool wins the Premier League?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2025, EDT+39.3%+$5.64
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 13, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the government shutdown end November 14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$87.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Sep 5, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US Open: Novak Djokovic vs Carlos Alcarazbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.33
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
SpaceX 7th Starship booster survives re-entry?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST-100%-$41.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Nov 18, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$170Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$170
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$14.8
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.