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NFL · resolved market

Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Jaguarsof Jaguars, Titans
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,265,973
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,269,031

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,265,973 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NFL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb744…5210backed Titans53c1,000,000$530,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$530,00017041.8%71 W · 99 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Jaguars47c874,658$411,089 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463,568.9386547.9%414 W · 451 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Jaguars47c106,712$50,622 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56,090.2317454.6%95 W · 79 L+8.9wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd38b…5029backed Jaguars47c71,267$33,495 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37,771.3219553.8%105 W · 90 L+16.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+23.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xabb8…bba3backed Jaguars48c70,608$33,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36,772.538747.1%41 W · 46 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Titans52c50,000$26,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25,999.9916051.9%83 W · 77 L+5.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Titans52c40,000$20,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,799.9831240.7%127 W · 185 L-22.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Titans53c30,396$16,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,108.8653348.4%258 W · 275 L+1.7wins0.00per pick48cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4335…fc2fbacked Jaguars47c25,203$11,845 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,357.5411168.5%76 W · 35 L+18.5wins+0.17per pick52cpaid+34.3%equal weight65+0.14 edge/pick
0x9c6f…89b9backed Titans53c18,785$9,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,993.95756.1%32 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb2f…eca9backed Titans52c17,423$8,986 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,985.9217348%83 W · 90 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+1.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x226b…cad6backed Jaguars49c15,000$7,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,70023937.7%90 W · 149 L-9.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-7.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x187b…26bfbacked Jaguars47c10,500$4,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,5653447.1%16 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+112.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Titans53c10,000$5,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,30035848.6%174 W · 184 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Titans52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.974358.1%25 W · 18 L+4.0wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1a38…8fb5backed Titans54c8,333$4,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,50014252.1%74 W · 68 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+7.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Titans52c7,500$3,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,90083147.8%397 W · 434 L+13.7wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x56c6…f706backed Jaguars48c6,500$3,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,3805756.1%32 W · 25 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Jaguars48c5,434$2,593 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,841.0347348.4%229 W · 244 L+1.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa849…c825backed Jaguars48c5,015$2,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,600.158351.8%43 W · 40 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+13.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Jaguars48c5,000$2,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,6001241.7%5 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-11.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Titans53c4,704$2,472 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4721,19649.9%597 W · 599 L+1.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb43…3c74backed Jaguars46c4,500$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,43026547.2%125 W · 140 L+10.4wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+11.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8511…4a6bbacked Titans52c4,160$2,163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,163.26752.2%35 W · 32 L+3.3wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Titans54c3,704$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0005352.8%28 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Jaguars48c3,000$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,57526648.9%130 W · 136 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Titans53c2,958$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.7114154.6%77 W · 64 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c09…c9b4backed Titans54c2,778$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50018140.9%74 W · 107 L-0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+42.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb9fc…da76backed Jaguars47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32519240.1%77 W · 115 L-16.2wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x827a…8a2bbacked Jaguars47c2,500$1,175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,32515555.5%86 W · 69 L+7.2wins+0.05per pick51cpaid+6.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Jaguars46c2,365$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,265.391,06551.3%546 W · 519 L+25.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Jaguars46c2,260$1,039 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,220.1914450%72 W · 72 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Jaguars48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,09228447.5%135 W · 149 L-5.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8198…e96ebacked Titans53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0605246.2%24 W · 28 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-14.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Jaguars47c2,000$940 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,06011452.6%60 W · 54 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x437c…f458backed Titans53c1,700$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9016759.7%40 W · 27 L+6.6wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Titans53c1,700$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90120661.2%126 W · 80 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+11.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3846…c908backed Jaguars48c1,500$720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7804647.8%22 W · 24 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4862…1a17backed Jaguars48c1,042$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.671952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+73.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf9fe…366bbacked Titans53c1,000$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53036246.7%169 W · 193 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Titans37c995.14$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.0483447.1%393 W · 441 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77a3…0e3fbacked Jaguars51c975.25$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$475.254348.8%21 W · 22 L-2.1wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Titans50c970$485 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48544652.9%236 W · 210 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8db6…da81backed Titans53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5008149.4%40 W · 41 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Titans52c892.01$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.4165048.3%314 W · 336 L-0.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a87…fb21backed Jaguars48c830$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.320354.7%111 W · 92 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Titans54c750$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40518744.9%84 W · 103 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Jaguars47c700$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37123647%111 W · 125 L-3.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…5e8fbacked Titans48c643.02$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.6539754.4%216 W · 181 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1f85…a51bbacked Jaguars52c578$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$279.2223447.9%112 W · 122 L-10.9wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ae7…cf61backed Titans53c554.72$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2944860.4%29 W · 19 L+3.1wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1733…1e15backed Jaguars46c549.99$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$296.9920443.6%89 W · 115 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa8d7…c17bbacked Titans53c525$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.2511759.8%70 W · 47 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc7d4…ad20backed Titans52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260580%4 W · 1 L+1.8wins+0.36per pick44cpaid+113.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Jaguars49c500$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2556162.3%38 W · 23 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb14…bd17backed Jaguars52c480.77$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.7713145.8%60 W · 71 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6036…d2ccbacked Jaguars48c430$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.612151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x045d…d649backed Jaguars47c425.53$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.539536.8%35 W · 60 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-22.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x205b…dd3cbacked Titans52c419.85$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.3214148.2%68 W · 73 L-5.9wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb457…b13abacked Titans53c377.36$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004951%25 W · 24 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb22…808abacked Titans54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1357526.7%20 W · 55 L-12.9wins-0.17per pick44cpaid-51.1%equal weight36-0.13 edge/pick
0x03f7…c0ccbacked Jaguars48c250$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1307456.8%42 W · 32 L+6.9wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+20.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf48d…fe48backed Titans53c244.97$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.8314949%73 W · 76 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+14.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Titans53c240$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.259453.7%319 W · 275 L+24.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7497…1dc4backed Titans50c239.39$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Jaguars47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.777550.7%38 W · 37 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Jaguars48c210$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.226857.1%153 W · 115 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+8.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9da3…a7efbacked Jaguars48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3312054.2%65 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff9…ce7abacked Jaguars48c208.33$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.3311650.9%59 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ec4…defabacked Jaguars46c200$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10820542%86 W · 119 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe64…873ebacked Jaguars48c200$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1045154.9%28 W · 23 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x12fe…38cfbacked Jaguars47c200$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10631540.6%128 W · 187 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick40cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b80…657fbacked Titans50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10015746.5%73 W · 84 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Jaguars47c199.71$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.2423024.3%56 W · 174 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Titans50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9754451.7%281 W · 263 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Titans53c190$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.755345%249 W · 304 L-9.0wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9dc2…8416backed Jaguars47c189.48$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.489757.7%56 W · 41 L+6.9wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+21.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x89c9…9534backed Titans53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022349.8%111 W · 112 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa14e…f856backed Titans54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1006959.4%41 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x021a…b2d7backed Titans54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009641.7%40 W · 56 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0974…003dbacked Jaguars48c178.16$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.6416551.5%85 W · 80 L+9.5wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x50bb…9aa6backed Jaguars47c174.99$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.755246.2%24 W · 28 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+14.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa8f5…1caabacked Titans48c158$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8441450.5%209 W · 205 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe13e…c564backed Jaguars47c151.69$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.42339.1%9 W · 14 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick33cpaid+37.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2123…8d70backed Titans53c150.27$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.4711740.2%47 W · 70 L-10.0wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe6e4…22ccbacked Jaguars47c150$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.56756.7%38 W · 29 L+4.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+12.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5dd…b094backed Titans53c145$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.859443.6%41 W · 53 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-0.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc07d…5bd8backed Jaguars66c129.95$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.027044.3%31 W · 39 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-22.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Titans50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6034349.3%169 W · 174 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Jaguars48c120$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.420632%66 W · 140 L-10.8wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-20.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Jaguars48c111$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.7253253%282 W · 250 L+19.1wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Titans52c108$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1631450%157 W · 157 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe43b…f955backed Jaguars47c106.11$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.244748.9%23 W · 24 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x50ba…5435backed Jaguars48c104.17$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.175158.8%30 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xebd3…c5f4backed Jaguars48c101$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.528557.6%49 W · 36 L+9.7wins+0.11per pick46cpaid+21.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6fe9…9c50backed Jaguars47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5312245.9%56 W · 66 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-17.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Jaguars46c100$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-26.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd547…5ed7backed Jaguars49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$512556%14 W · 11 L+2.9wins+0.12per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Jaguars48c93.75$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.7517547.4%83 W · 92 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e68…d99bbacked Titans49c86.88$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.5713560%81 W · 54 L+14.7wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.