NFL · resolved market
Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 42.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc773162ad614b578615f2279a659aa8323aaca4695f03ad9fa15505304c757e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $66,555
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $66,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $66,555 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Over | 49c | 39,462$19,336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,336.15 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…4f16backed Under | 51c | 38,800$19,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,012 | 176 | 47.7%84 W · 92 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c6f…89b9backed Under | 52c | 19,765$10,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,578.5 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Over | 48c | 10,860$5,213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,212.88 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 48c | 5,145$2,470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,469.53 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Over | 50c | 4,565$2,283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,282.5 | 343 | 49.3%169 W · 174 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d7a…b22fbacked Under | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,000 | 44 | 56.8%25 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 50c | 4,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 116 | 40.5%47 W · 69 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5f…d795backed Under | 49c | 450.37$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.69 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b80…657fbacked Under | 52c | 416$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$199.68 | 157 | 46.5%73 W · 84 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 51c | 336$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.25 | 473 | 48.4%229 W · 244 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 52c | 239.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.95 | 834 | 47.1%393 W · 441 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 52c | 213$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.24 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Over | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 109 | 48.6%53 W · 56 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe64…873ebacked Under | 52c | 199.99$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed21…a2a1backed Under | 53c | 141.51$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.51 | 61 | 65.6%40 W · 21 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdb12…f057backed Under | 47c | 136$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.08 | 87 | 50.6%44 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 22c | 117.09$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.26 | 502 | 42.4%213 W · 289 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 684 | 46.1%315 W · 369 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e86…5c9ebacked Under | 57c | 77.38$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.01 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d1…ff0cbacked Under | 52c | 70.79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.79 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7541…09d1backed Over | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +4.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a59…eb2ebacked Over | 47c | 56.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 139 | 59%82 W · 57 L | +12.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 53c | 46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.38 | 315 | 43.2%136 W · 179 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x727c…0452backed Over | 49c | 40.8$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6878…bec2backed Under | 62c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.2 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 38c | 38.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1acc…35b7backed Under | 55c | 33.55$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 31 | 61.3%19 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 45c | 33.55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 568 | 52.3%297 W · 271 L | +26.3wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Over | 41c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 600 | 49.3%296 W · 304 L | +21.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x051f…50c5backed Under | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 46c | 29.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e68…d99bbacked Over | 46c | 27.78$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 135 | 60%81 W · 54 L | +14.7wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…2a57backed Under | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Over | 49c | 23.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 42.5this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Jaguars vs. TitansJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 41.5Under won
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)Jaguars won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.