NFL · resolved market
Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbf5b5f7e011b75386f5092d41f8525163f6875b1f663de350f663a1243a3c3d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jaguarsof Jaguars, Titans
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $149,393
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $149,561
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $149,393 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xabb8…bba3backed Jaguars | 54c | 70,000$37,754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32,246.2 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Titans | 46c | 48,779$22,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,438.27 | 67 | 64.2%43 W · 24 L | +9.7wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Jaguars | 52c | 42,926$22,321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,604.39 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Titans | 48c | 35,269$16,929 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,929.25 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Titans | 47c | 28,046$13,241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,240.93 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Jaguars | 52c | 16,022$8,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,690.51 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Titans | 47c | 13,552$6,401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,400.58 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…99a7backed Titans | 49c | 8,163$4,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,999.87 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1496…a429backed Jaguars | 51c | 4,163$2,123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,039.87 | 274 | 54.7%150 W · 124 L | +13.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Jaguars | 52c | 4,131$2,147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,984.23 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…8525backed Jaguars | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 236 | 47%111 W · 125 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a50…c1e5backed Jaguars | 49c | 204$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d4e…18debacked Jaguars | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 117 | 52.1%61 W · 56 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Titans | 48c | 200$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Titans | 51c | 189$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.8 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…3ef4backed Jaguars | 53c | 145$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Titans | 49c | 112.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Jaguars | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0078…bca0backed Jaguars | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 227 | 45.4%103 W · 124 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab52…5487backed Titans | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +4.6wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Titans | 48c | 83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.55 | 363 | 41.9%152 W · 211 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Jaguars | 52c | 76.92$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 153 | 52.3%80 W · 73 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c24…8c06backed Jaguars | 52c | 68.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.9wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe44b…6e0abacked Jaguars | 51c | 60$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 169 | 40.8%69 W · 100 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Jaguars | 53c | 56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 532 | 53%282 W · 250 L | +19.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9e4…24c2backed Jaguars | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 91 | 51.6%47 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f9…2aa8backed Jaguars | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 290 | 59.7%173 W · 117 L | +14.4wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a4…3c66backed Titans | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5779…168dbacked Jaguars | 52c | 19.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.41 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Jaguars (-5.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Jaguars (-3.5)Jaguars won
- Jaguars vs. TitansJaguars won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: 1H O/U 20.5Over won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: 1H O/U 21.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 41.5Under won
- Jaguars vs. Titans: O/U 42.5Under won
- Spread: Jaguars (-6.5)Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.