Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa13265b2c87f6eb41889cd992ecb6629f7e787eb15b7c36ed10792b08cd58e60

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,027,135
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $807,960

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,027,135 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 801 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x16e3…e2acbacked Yes	1c	73,170$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$440.98	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	20c	54,790$10,907 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10,907.41	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	29c	39,722$11,498 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11,497.91	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	28c	30,738$8,759 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$8,759.34	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	15c	16,930$2,493 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,492.55	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	30c	13,262$3,965 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,964.89	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	19c	12,853$2,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,458.55	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	0c	12,044$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes	2c	11,097$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5224…0de8backed Yes	0c	10,900$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No	59c	10,527$6,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,298.15	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed No	73c	10,463$7,656 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,807.28	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked No	69c	9,608$6,674 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,933.89	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	26c	9,000$2,311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,311.01	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8178…dc7abacked Yes	3c	8,364$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.41	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ea…471ebacked Yes	2c	7,698$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+1.0wins	+0.26per pick	24cpaid	+156%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	0c	7,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed No	61c	6,513$3,999 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,514.39	15	53.3%8 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	49cpaid	+11%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	14c	6,245$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.93	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	54c	6,160$3,305 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,855.51	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	26c	6,096$1,601 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,600.96	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x734c…fc6ebacked Yes	2c	5,970$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.65	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.5wins	+0.27per pick	23cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	24c	5,467$1,302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,301.87	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb917…9a73backed Yes	38c	5,125$1,939 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,938.52	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-79.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes	0c	5,070$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.47	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9126…1896backed Yes	29c	5,000$1,450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,450	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	64c	4,945$3,160 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,785.59	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	14c	4,922$688 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.6	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	4c	4,721$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.51	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	61c	4,571$2,773 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,797.52	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xda15…2762backed Yes	4c	4,425$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.69	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde92…5e10backed No	54c	4,236$2,266 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,969.67	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	19c	4,016$753 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$752.83	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	1c	3,980$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No	75c	3,782$2,822 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$959.68	155	20.6%32 W · 123 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes	43c	3,705$1,607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,607.46	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d0…881ebacked No	69c	3,702$2,561 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,140.51	8	50%4 W · 4 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b4…efc6backed No	71c	3,642$2,587 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,055	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	72cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2afd…deb4backed Yes	24c	3,633$875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$874.9	74	9.5%7 W · 67 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	24c	3,405$815 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$815.15	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	3,395$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.6	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed Yes	27c	3,333$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.57	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	3c	3,280$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	38c	3,188$1,214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,214.32	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	3,107$341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.9	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe644…1dffbacked Yes	47c	3,057$1,447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,447.12	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	27c	3,000$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.98	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	29c	3,000$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.42	70	14.3%10 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No	79c	2,907$2,294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$613.13	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes	38c	2,868$1,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,094.07	24	37.5%9 W · 15 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	32cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	25c	2,828$720 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.85	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cd4…8ed6backed Yes	34c	2,820$958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$958.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.34per pick	34cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	6c	2,770$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.78	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf67c…2f87backed Yes	6c	2,656$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6af7…2c4bbacked Yes	24c	2,643$642 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$641.72	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	29cpaid	-55.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	3c	2,577$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes	28c	2,563$715 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	28c	2,506$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.87	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed Yes	10c	2,474$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.98	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+2.0wins	+0.18per pick	9cpaid	+321.9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf04d…7f3fbacked Yes	35c	2,359$833 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$833.39	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.06per pick	44cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa638…1d87backed Yes	23c	2,334$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.6	293	31.7%93 W · 200 L	+5.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	69c	2,247$1,548 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$698.86	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	15c	2,168$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$316.94	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No	57c	2,128$1,212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$916.4	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	2,070$504 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$503.97	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes	14c	2,049$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	21c	2,037$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$427.41	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	29c	2,006$581 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$581.31	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	33c	2,002$656 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$655.56	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	30c	1,995$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$605.65	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02a5…0cbdbacked Yes	40c	1,875$746 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$745.51	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes	25c	1,785$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.71	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7dd…bc48backed Yes	28c	1,777$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-27.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc164…74d4backed Yes	15c	1,707$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.5	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	29cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	10c	1,682$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes	49c	1,677$819 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$819	15	40%6 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes	26c	1,671$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$432.61	80	31.3%25 W · 55 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f8…decebacked Yes	11c	1,651$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.94	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be0…7491backed Yes	10c	1,614$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.9	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0523…ace5backed Yes	38c	1,605$607 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.41	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	+17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed Yes	10c	1,584$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.98	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+2.8wins	+0.11per pick	12cpaid	+179.4%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes	52c	1,532$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$792.29	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed No	75c	1,521$1,147 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$374.17	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4d6…20f7backed Yes	26c	1,520$397 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$397.39	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes	38c	1,500$577 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$576.53	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	32c	1,496$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$473.24	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed No	62c	1,490$920 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$569.51	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7a4e…a436backed Yes	8c	1,468$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.25	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	38c	1,446$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.35	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	51c	1,419$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724.16	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6252…495dbacked Yes	6c	1,350$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.75	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	28cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a2…c111backed Yes	26c	1,324$339 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e7…77b1backed Yes	4c	1,316$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	35cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	27c	1,303$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	15c	1,288$193 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.44	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes	63c	1,272$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No	63c	1,271$799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$471.55	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	19c	1,264$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.71	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event