Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa79955801a9683e5b13927576274ebba1ee0554e2eaacfd0eac569c7e07efeef

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $395,205
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $221,709

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,205 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	169,986$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.77	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	12,000$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	10,500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	6c	6,736$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.84	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	4,081$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.66	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,072$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.66	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	9c	2,500$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	2,356$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x78a6…8115backed Yes	1c	2,186$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	11c	2,167$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.7	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	7c	2,100$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.58	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	14c	1,616$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	4c	1,500$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	1c	1,454$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.69	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	2c	1,448$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.59	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3615…fc21backed Yes	1c	1,401$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	12c	1,126$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.15	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	1c	1,101$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.83	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	1c	1,034$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.94	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	1,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	2c	999.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	3c	950$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.61	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	2c	933.96$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.18	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	6c	844.41$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.72	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4fd4…4095backed Yes	13c	783.27$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	3c	721.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.09	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	9c	668$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.12	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	2c	542.08$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.74	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	516.86$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	7c	491.55$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.41	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4312…a388backed Yes	2c	422.65$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+1.0wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	10c	422.16$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.8	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	11c	399.97$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes	15c	385.93$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.89	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9d9…5670backed Yes	14c	375$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+124.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	6c	361.82$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.62	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x1606…0ba6backed Yes	4c	360$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	100	21%21 W · 79 L	-2.7wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x051b…ca68backed Yes	14c	284.92$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0196…d9f9backed Yes	14c	250$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	9c	250$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf6ae…c6e0backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	13.5%7 W · 45 L	-2.1wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5096…c5b1backed Yes	10c	199.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+0.7wins	+0.05per pick	22cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	10c	199.96$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes	11c	181.82$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68b8…5401backed Yes	10c	175$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	160.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.26	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce39…c181backed Yes	9c	160$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e97…72a5backed Yes	13c	148.45$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-64.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x2c15…21b3backed Yes	8c	135$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	23cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	13c	116.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.08	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee1d…fba5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfb5…8bd4backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e59…8ec5backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	99	5.1%5 W · 94 L	-5.8wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3273…9621backed Yes	12c	99.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-4.0wins	-0.18per pick	22cpaid	-94.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5497…8ac9backed Yes	13c	99.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc4c1…241bbacked Yes	11c	99.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6113…9d20backed Yes	13c	90.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.79	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.7wins	-0.36per pick	36cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event