Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb54b2d983de110743425ca238c1a5508b28b5e6b55f6050a6c44b6b03ec49148

Rebuilt 21 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $802,186
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $478,294

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $802,186 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 253 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	121,088$858 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$858.34	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	0c	60,506$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.51	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	19c	50,000$9,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$9,469.65	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	38,235$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.13	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab8f…1273backed Yes	0c	25,307$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.92	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	23,111$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.11	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	14,561$1,072 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,071.72	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	14c	9,000$1,230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,230	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	5c	8,191$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.55	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd83…eef1backed Yes	1c	7,050$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	7c	6,282$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$438.72	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	6,100$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.2	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	18c	5,716$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	3c	5,500$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.5	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9126…1896backed Yes	1c	5,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	9	44.4%4 W · 5 L	+1.3wins	+0.14per pick	30cpaid	+30.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	11c	4,718$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$542.55	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	7c	4,551$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.76	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,369$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.99	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	10c	4,033$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.36	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	3,306$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.29	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	4c	3,273$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.53	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes	19c	3,260$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.37	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes	10c	3,018$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	12c	3,000$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf7ba…1ef3backed Yes	2c	2,518$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	7c	2,400$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	4c	2,361$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.98	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	9c	2,200$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	11c	2,100$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.5	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	16c	2,075$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330.5	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	6c	2,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	12c	1,857$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.33	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	15c	1,807$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.96	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x48f5…8af7backed Yes	1c	1,605$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	6c	1,333$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.98	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	1,278$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.87	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes	17c	1,191$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa40a…0615backed Yes	18c	1,122$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	50	18%9 W · 41 L	-1.5wins	-0.03per pick	21cpaid	-12.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	18c	1,113$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.34	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	13c	1,101$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.32	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes	1c	1,056$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	6c	1,020$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.2	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc164…74d4backed Yes	15c	1,000$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	13	46.2%6 W · 7 L	+2.2wins	+0.17per pick	29cpaid	+32%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	999.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	14c	999.96$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.99	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	8c	999.72$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.46	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	14c	950$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	12c	933.99$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.84	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed Yes	4c	888.7$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.92	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	13c	830.99$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.03	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5801…a4afbacked Yes	18c	824.12$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.7	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	7c	799.99$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	17c	754.83$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	9c	699.99$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.55	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	15c	673.89$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.17	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	3c	659.6$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.52	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	15c	634.73$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.6	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes	16c	634.62$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	15c	610.72$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.21	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa724…06c4backed Yes	17c	600.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…858dbacked Yes	15c	599.98$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x98dc…9949backed Yes	17c	594.12$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	14c	575.6$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.76	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	570$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.7	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbfa3…b298backed Yes	18c	560.58$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbc…1a98backed Yes	18c	555.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.6wins	+0.13per pick	27cpaid	+65.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes	11c	550$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.5	131	26.7%35 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6298…b860backed Yes	15c	537.52$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	30cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa0c0…8677backed Yes	19c	534.7$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e3…0272backed Yes	19c	527.39$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	+40.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe69e…61d2backed Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	24cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6324…754bbacked Yes	9c	523.79$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdfbc…167cbacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+74.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes	20c	500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	17c	500$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	4c	467.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.95	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x232b…8bd9backed Yes	17c	454.82$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.32	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb5f…9f74backed Yes	19c	429.05$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes	4c	418.19$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xbd11…3401backed Yes	17c	404.57$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	19c	400$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	17c	395.26$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.29	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	18c	389.98$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.2	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	11c	378.64$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.81	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	378.21$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes	21c	364.86$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd603…ac01backed Yes	3c	357.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.02	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeba7…1de3backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed Yes	3c	338.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc89b…7807backed Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f36…4f21backed Yes	8c	321.23$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.92	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes	19c	318.31$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec6e…95c4backed Yes	17c	316.59$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.82	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8481…d87abacked Yes	17c	310$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.7	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf647…632bbacked Yes	7c	308.33$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb69f…a62fbacked Yes	19c	305.26$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event