Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x36554df0407dfd2ec04fd11f5ada9e9e213ba1d057085163a68423348cbff26c

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $603,423
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $345,187

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $603,423 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 188 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	149,999$686 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$686	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	9c	30,000$2,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,700	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes	14c	13,711$1,900 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,900.2	209	7.7%16 W · 193 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-17%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	13,580$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$446.93	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d17…8849backed Yes	3c	8,098$213 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$212.78	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	7,956$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.39	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	6,231$364 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$363.83	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	3c	6,216$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.78	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	4c	6,000$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	5,074$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.95	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	19c	4,198$783 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$783	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed Yes	8c	3,555$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0fc…a57fbacked Yes	8c	3,432$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.55	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	3c	3,300$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	2c	2,873$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.33	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	2,692$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.78	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Yes	15c	2,500$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	15c	2,199$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.95	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	2,129$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.46	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	1c	2,040$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.83	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$319.99	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	3c	1,916$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.4	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	1,627$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.83	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	1c	1,600$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf26…6f4dbacked Yes	2c	1,546$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	5c	1,528$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.27	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	3c	1,401$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.03	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	4c	1,400$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes	2c	1,333$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	17.9%10 W · 46 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes	17c	1,156$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	4c	1,101$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.77	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	1c	1,059$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed Yes	7c	1,012$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.85	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	3c	1,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	8c	1,000$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5632…748dbacked Yes	1c	1,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	50	18%9 W · 41 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	6c	999.99$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	12c	999.99$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	2c	963.95$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.02	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	9c	950$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.5	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	5c	933.99$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.6	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	17c	834.41$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.51	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf2c…8c84backed Yes	5c	830.99$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.55	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	20cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	16c	800$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe66e…f940backed Yes	18c	800$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-2.3wins	-0.17per pick	24cpaid	-77.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	3c	772.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4948…2a26backed Yes	5c	739.7$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-66%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	12c	677.59$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.14	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	669.3$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.73	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x34e5…d9d0backed Yes	3c	666$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.98	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	+2.5wins	+0.04per pick	4cpaid	+67.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes	3c	650$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	75	24%18 W · 57 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	+24.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0d9…b3c8backed Yes	2c	610.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc14…2e9bbacked Yes	17c	604.13$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5ec…17aabacked Yes	16c	599.98$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.32per pick	18cpaid	+150%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7dd…6a2cbacked Yes	4c	599.98$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	131	26.7%35 W · 96 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-37.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe347…b438backed Yes	2c	590.28$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	87	52.9%46 W · 41 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	53cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf3e…38b5backed Yes	19c	588.75$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.34	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfa3…b298backed Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa724…06c4backed Yes	18c	564.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x53c6…b9a7backed Yes	16c	549.99$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	+26.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	7c	492.41$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	415.74$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.67	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	7c	400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.68	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	399.64$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.75	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	9c	378$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.9	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeba7…1de3backed Yes	3c	350$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe962…7a52backed Yes	15c	350$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.5	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2a…af60backed Yes	13c	323.45$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.34	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	8c	318$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.44	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x661e…81d6backed Yes	12c	300$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.65	40	22.5%9 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+20.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked No	80c	300$240 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$60	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0629…b513backed Yes	17c	299.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	17	29.4%5 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+12%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b8…e7d5backed Yes	15c	299.95$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.99	22	9.1%2 W · 20 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	15cpaid	-56.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68b8…5401backed Yes	16c	290$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.6	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+1.1wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+86.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	18c	280.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2a1…fe8bbacked Yes	18c	277.31$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd65e…38ebbacked Yes	7c	268.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.25per pick	25cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	11c	267.34$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc92e…343dbacked Yes	18c	267$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.36	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb5f…9f74backed Yes	19c	258.33$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb5fa…fe6ebacked Yes	20c	253.45$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	53	18.9%10 W · 43 L	-2.5wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d59…7f77backed Yes	10c	250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.15per pick	26cpaid	-63.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3c2…1398backed Yes	13c	250$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.5	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8a5…8805backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	11cpaid	+138.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	16c	249.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.9	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8b0d…5a0cbacked Yes	16c	217.6$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.1wins	-0.13per pick	19cpaid	-87%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9bd…0568backed Yes	7c	206.45$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.1	20	15%3 W · 17 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xc1f4…43d8backed Yes	10c	205$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.05	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…8417backed Yes	12c	202.13$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832e…cb3ebacked Yes	18c	200$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	24cpaid	-2.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xee38…a5a9backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5497…8ac9backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event