Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x642ce9b38620266f9c3a00421082626c728a144e7e01c5d247e36700fac5ccfe

Rebuilt 43 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 9, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $875,988
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $465,060

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $875,988 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	2c	140,025$2,254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,254.33	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked Yes	1c	79,413$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.17	68	19.1%13 W · 55 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	1c	56,480$291 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.97	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	0c	45,223$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.16	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	30,000$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.58	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	28,220$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x75e7…9080backed Yes	0c	20,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	7.3%3 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	20,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf223…cc53backed Yes	1c	16,808$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	14,799$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.19	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabf…bb11backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x05dd…7f98backed Yes	1c	9,211$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	1c	6,250$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	1c	4,566$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.91	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd25b…dd82backed Yes	0c	4,523$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	4,437$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.84	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	1c	4,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	1c	3,084$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a4e…b38cbacked Yes	0c	3,066$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.81	38	10.5%4 W · 34 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-54.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	3c	2,506$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.48	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	1c	2,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc42e…56b9backed Yes	1c	2,122$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d6a…6de3backed Yes	1c	2,067$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.28	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-77.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes	5c	1,623$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.49	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	1c	1,484$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.17	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x24dd…8143backed Yes	2c	1,362$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.10per pick	15cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes	1c	1,255$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.71	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes	1c	999.21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.07	123	8.1%10 W · 113 L	-5.6wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	9c	933.35$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.86	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	2c	920.7$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.08	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7164…e8a5backed Yes	7c	900$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1235…3bfbbacked Yes	8c	900$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb474…8ae9backed Yes	7c	900$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9894…1402backed Yes	7c	900$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x961a…b24ebacked Yes	7c	900$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3dd…f5e6backed Yes	7c	900$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	2c	845.08$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.96	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	1c	724$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19c0…0aa5backed Yes	2c	661.66$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4bb…2865backed Yes	4c	525.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce51…198cbacked Yes	9c	453$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.19per pick	21cpaid	+52.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e05…0d64backed Yes	4c	382.16$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.67	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes	3c	354.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x32cd…f0bfbacked Yes	3c	343.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	24	16.7%4 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-27.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event