Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ee079d022188d189d62629cd4b0022ee840ded1d621578eb6ffdf2f4d6fd901

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 11, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $394,268
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $204,573

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $394,268 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	165,431$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195.68	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	14,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes	0c	9,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	240	1.7%4 W · 236 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+675.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	5,273$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.07	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes	6c	2,351$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.05	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-40%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes	1c	2,105$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.16	68	2.9%2 W · 66 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	4cpaid	-81.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd603…ac01backed Yes	1c	2,086$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.04	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-81.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,891$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.79	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,721$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.99	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	1,371$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e42…ea9bbacked Yes	6c	1,172$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.32	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4fd4…4095backed Yes	11c	986$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.78	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes	1c	933.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac63…b27bbacked Yes	7c	893.38$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.87	47	10.6%5 W · 42 L	-1.9wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	2c	860$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.48	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	720$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	9c	499.98$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	9c	442.9$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.04	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa4aa…9cabbacked Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0cd0…0e01backed Yes	7c	199.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	37	13.5%5 W · 32 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+39.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	180.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.26	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd15…b989backed Yes	10c	101$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	21cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x5497…8ac9backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.3wins	-0.10per pick	26cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event