TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,146,032
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$721,809

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,146,032 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 425 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes1c95,766$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$826.548206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes2c77,866$1,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,316.448711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes22c65,828$14,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,422.791809.4%17 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes2c45,528$1,126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.8966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes5c35,362$1,930 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.974816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes0c25,777$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.5554675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes8c16,414$1,239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,238.67966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes0c16,410$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.4514914.1%21 W · 128 L+7.1wins+0.05per pick9cpaid-33.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes0c16,374$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.0762713.2%83 W · 544 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-52.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes0c14,745$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8712712.6%16 W · 111 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes7c14,122$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.161,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes9c12,901$1,121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,120.9817322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No76c11,145$8,422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,722.5711556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.1wins0.00per pick56cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c10,552$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.562,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5055…14bebacked Yes4c10,276$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$439.830%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes8c9,513$771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$770.6554122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes3c9,324$254 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25480%0 W · 8 L-1.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes14c8,294$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,168.2145715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes17c8,152$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,363.175325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes14c7,386$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0001553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes21c7,172$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,50021211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9437…4692backed Yes23c6,946$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.67633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde54…444dbacked Yes0c6,446$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.312025%5 W · 15 L+1.6wins+0.08per pick17cpaid+91.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes12c6,204$729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$729.471,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb917…9a73backed Yes3c5,110$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.29296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9126…1896backed Yes4c5,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes5c4,574$239 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.71238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes0c4,522$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.064568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes3c4,105$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.5362412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes1c4,000$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$375249.9%52 W · 472 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+64%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes19c3,848$743 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$743.41637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes11c3,732$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.174165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes1c3,658$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5521220.3%43 W · 169 L+13.4wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+610.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes6c3,602$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3510513.3%14 W · 91 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes12c3,162$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$370.1257222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes13c3,109$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.5541017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No78c3,098$2,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.0118531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe644…1dffbacked Yes8c3,057$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.9540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes0c3,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111347.5%10 W · 124 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+27%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes10c3,000$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.99385.3%2 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked No78c2,988$2,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$657.323836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d87…db7abacked Yes15c2,945$455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$455.33425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67db…a102backed Yes1c2,927$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick15cpaid+44.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes15c2,865$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.5420226.7%54 W · 148 L+8.0wins+0.04per pick23cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes1c2,840$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0553817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No76c2,832$2,156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.5124873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa766…6beebacked Yes4c2,546$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.86825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+128.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdede…4747backed Yes4c2,500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-43.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea86…4d92backed No74c2,432$1,808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$623.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6af7…2c4bbacked Yes29c2,396$689 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes9c2,367$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22016417.1%28 W · 136 L+6.8wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0688…24d5backed Yes1c2,355$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes2c2,355$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.53225%8 W · 24 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cc…bbbfbacked Yes1c2,274$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.862931%9 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-44.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes13c2,120$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.352097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes17c2,004$341 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$340.6278811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes15c2,000$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes10c1,969$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.363267.1%23 W · 303 L-0.9wins0.00per pick7cpaid-39.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf9a2…a79abacked Yes3c1,900$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.72821.4%6 W · 22 L-1.3wins-0.05per pick26cpaid+17%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes6c1,876$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.363312.1%4 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes22c1,815$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40017722.6%40 W · 137 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes22c1,782$394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.275311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes3c1,774$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6218116%29 W · 152 L+0.1wins0.00per pick16cpaid-23.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fdc…9b5cbacked Yes1c1,560$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1620%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes13c1,549$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes5c1,514$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.37682.9%2 W · 66 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes12c1,500$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1803010%3 W · 27 L-0.1wins0.00per pick10cpaid-30.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes18c1,500$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26843719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes9c1,500$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1314818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes1c1,482$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1012616.7%21 W · 105 L-0.2wins0.00per pick17cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5801…a4afbacked Yes22c1,383$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9825%2 W · 6 L0.0wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-30.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae68…a807backed Yes3c1,350$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.45425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-64%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes20c1,337$273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$273.197828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked No77c1,270$978 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$292.113040%12 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes2c1,255$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.351,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes2c1,197$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2017612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes19c1,185$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$220.554869.7%47 W · 439 L+8.2wins+0.02per pick8cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes8c1,156$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.29911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes18c1,115$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes21c1,101$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.816823.5%16 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No78c1,091$856 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.9531242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes2c1,081$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6156817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77ac…47c2backed Yes28c1,079$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3002718.5%5 W · 22 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-50.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb23…c1ffbacked Yes4c1,071$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3940%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes7c1,051$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.41287.1%2 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick10cpaid+3.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6298…b860backed Yes19c1,016$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-45.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes21c1,006$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.262227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes3c1,000$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x438d…8ef2backed Yes17c1,000$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2101915.8%3 W · 16 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-28.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes20c1,000$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.515812%19 W · 139 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152748.1%13 W · 14 L+2.3wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes22c984.99$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5515911.9%19 W · 140 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-35.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes2c965.25$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.698616.3%14 W · 72 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-35.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e55…e157backed Yes17c940$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.687524%18 W · 57 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick26cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9e…fa03backed Yes19c933.99$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$181.165827.6%16 W · 42 L+1.7wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-9.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes23c931.26$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.768922.5%20 W · 69 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb4…cb1ebacked Yes26c926.58$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.591513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.