TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$744,616
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$826,755

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $744,616 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 863 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes27c55,660$14,788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40,871.841809.4%17 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes68c31,065$21,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,879.3466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5e22…3993backed Yes70c27,469$19,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,197.046931.9%22 W · 47 L+4.6wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+81%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes42c13,292$5,644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,648.082825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked No1c12,530$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.024568.3%38 W · 418 L+1.3wins0.00per pick8cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes49c11,771$5,776 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,995.2968615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9126…1896backed Yes39c8,770$3,462 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,307.42944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.14per pick30cpaid+30.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No41c7,263$3,004 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,003.5116969.2%117 W · 52 L+17.6wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+13%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8758…fc2dbacked No57c7,050$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes45c6,780$3,034 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,746.198711.5%10 W · 77 L-2.2wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-1.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes77c6,194$4,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.552968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd74d…ff5ebacked No70c5,500$3,850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,849.92728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No42c4,824$2,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,026.0154274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No40c4,786$1,933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,932.623464.5%151 W · 83 L+23.0wins+0.10per pick55cpaid+6.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked No69c4,465$3,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,073.058206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes35c4,117$1,425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,692.0745715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes45c4,060$1,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,247.5112712.6%16 W · 111 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+56.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5172…0581backed No6c3,998$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$239.881127.3%3 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick9cpaid+321.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes47c3,857$1,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,039.9157222%126 W · 446 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-42%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6af7…2c4bbacked Yes45c3,744$1,675 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,069.4520%1 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-55.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes34c3,726$1,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,460.351637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb917…9a73backed Yes67c3,689$2,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,214.03296.9%2 W · 27 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-79.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No68c3,611$2,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,457.915520.6%32 W · 123 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-29.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes27c3,609$981 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,627.866322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No65c3,527$2,278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,27824672.8%179 W · 67 L+15.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes70c3,516$2,477 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.874818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes45c3,461$1,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,920.9828534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes57c3,333$1,884 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,449.22437.5%9 W · 15 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+30.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked Yes59c3,286$1,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,357.284436.4%16 W · 28 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes29c3,266$935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.3721211.8%25 W · 187 L-8.2wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes70c3,188$2,220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$968.393836.8%14 W · 24 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No49c3,118$1,543 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,543.2918163%114 W · 67 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes4c3,118$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,983.162074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes39c3,076$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.7253817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe644…1dffbacked Yes43c3,057$1,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,736.94540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick29cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf6d…9c5cbacked No69c3,001$2,071 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,070.566819.1%13 W · 55 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-18.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No75c2,959$2,217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,217.3318531.4%58 W · 127 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-36%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x85d5…bbf0backed No50c2,869$1,438 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.031238.1%10 W · 113 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-79.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes74c2,671$1,968 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.1233527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cde…5b98backed No6c2,666$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.962623.1%6 W · 20 L+2.8wins+0.11per pick12cpaid+179.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf04d…7f3fbacked Yes53c2,662$1,417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,245.01250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bb4…917dbacked Yes44c2,620$1,146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,473.95633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-40.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6589…39e2backed Yes60c2,509$1,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.74785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick63cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes50c2,466$1,234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,231.91717.6%3 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-45.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes14c2,349$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,020.25909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc164…74d4backed Yes39c2,232$864 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,367.941346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed No9c2,215$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.134165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes11c2,214$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,965.733611.1%4 W · 32 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-51.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8418…6b00backed No76c2,036$1,541 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,541.120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes44c2,006$883 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,122.54513.3%6 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08bf…8b4dbacked Yes7c2,000$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.97385.3%2 W · 36 L+0.1wins0.00per pick5cpaid-40%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes40c1,937$771 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.2943719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes58c1,835$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$774.861,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes52c1,799$927 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$871.5417322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes54c1,793$971 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$821.8817612.5%22 W · 154 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes30c1,786$536 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,250.454816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7d0…881ebacked Yes47c1,785$834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951.51850%4 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a18…7a20backed Yes63c1,773$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$647.55850%4 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes12c1,734$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,533.692634.6%9 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed No26c1,721$444 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.7345511.6%53 W · 402 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick10cpaid+104.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb796…58a8backed Yes38c1,695$636 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,059.17633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x963a…fc4cbacked Yes48c1,676$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$876.261540%6 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-21.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No55c1,658$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$905.7275122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes47c1,646$766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$880.4443933%145 W · 294 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-38.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes65c1,623$1,060 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$563.394818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7dd…bc48backed Yes31c1,604$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,104.281315.4%2 W · 11 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab2d…2ed0backed No50c1,600$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$801.98955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick61cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes35c1,599$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,039.398031.3%25 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes35c1,586$548 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,038.3315812%19 W · 139 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-19.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes37c1,552$573 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.7956817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes37c1,500$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$938.681315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick28cpaid-63.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1142…a9bfbacked Yes22c1,466$318 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.43425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+15.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x380f…8229backed Yes31c1,456$451 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,005.1817722.6%40 W · 137 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick21cpaid+7.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes77c1,450$1,121 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.0588210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes69c1,446$996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.11714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.2wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-79.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes23c1,427$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,098.255311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0b34…ffc3backed Yes37c1,425$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$894.42682.9%2 W · 66 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-81.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9937…5c2fbacked Yes45c1,424$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$785.02825%2 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick22cpaid-36.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes37c1,419$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$899.763915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes41c1,398$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$826.393040%12 W · 18 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes40c1,288$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$777.412227.3%6 W · 16 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-46.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes33c1,262$421 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$841.26913%9 W · 60 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+13.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes37c1,235$454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$780.62714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.8wins-0.12per pick26cpaid-61.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes27c1,212$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$886.6910923.9%26 W · 83 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick22cpaid-1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No2c1,199$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.472,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes44c1,172$519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.387818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes19c1,171$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$950.572313%3 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5c2…1750backed Yes38c1,160$441 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.172097.7%16 W · 193 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes47c1,150$540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$609.834119.5%8 W · 33 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-34.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f30…6b5cbacked Yes72c1,138$819 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$318.642326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-3.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No70c1,122$791 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$790.6731565.1%205 W · 110 L-1.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2dc…e100backed Yes8c1,116$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,031.354613%6 W · 40 L-5.2wins-0.11per pick24cpaid-31.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes26c1,101$286 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$814.516823.5%16 W · 52 L0.0wins0.00per pick24cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.961225%3 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ea4…f4acbacked Yes32c1,084$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$732.16742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes28c1,069$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$768.661225%3 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No15c1,066$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.93023.3%7 W · 23 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick14cpaid+140.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf43…b321backed Yes59c1,050$617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.51428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c6…0272backed No3c1,043$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.292123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes49c1,033$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$531.735024%12 W · 38 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-37.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.