TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf2c6…0272

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
36
Categories scored
9
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Lol, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Lol at 55 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 2, 2026, EST2123.8%5 W · 16 L-1.7wins-0.08per pick32cpaid+15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST+41.6%+$20.82
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$51.26
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+371.9%+$165.87
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$29.66
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$15.58
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$10.24
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$10.46
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+429.8%+$259.19
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$12.25
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+959.9%+$416.6
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$65.6
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$120.42
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$110
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$29.29
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$180Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST-100%-$179.98
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 31 to November 7, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 7, 2025, EST+123.2%+$24.64
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from October 28 to November 4, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 3, 2025, EST-100%-$19.5
All 21 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-34.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST3100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+72.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Lol — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick68cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+28.2%+$14.1
Trump announces new drug boat strike by November 16?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$23.2
All 2 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Dec 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the highest temperature in London be between 50-51°F on December 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 5, 2025, EST+92.3%+$19.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Poker — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
HCL Million Dollar Marathon: Alan Keating VPIP above 70%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 3, 2025, EST+38.9%+$5.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Dec 4, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump rank in Google’s Top 5 Most Searched People of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST-100%-$55
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump agree to a tariff agreement with South Korea in October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-23?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.