Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5ca3ec4182822504fd7309d5d8c0887bd352a6c9f870a731294a3c3ec625b44

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $877,393
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $594,488

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $877,393 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 611 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	15c	26,424$4,006 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,005.68	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	22,812$1,252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,252.32	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	12c	18,108$2,187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,187.37	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd68c…fcb2backed Yes	3c	14,638$439 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.13	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde92…5e10backed Yes	49c	14,431$7,026 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,026.39	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	4c	14,330$520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$520	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	18c	10,181$1,864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,864.34	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9856…8d02backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	39	33.3%13 W · 26 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	37cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	47c	9,231$4,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,333.2	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x55dd…1cccbacked Yes	39c	9,070$3,523 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,523.43	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-2.5wins	-0.41per pick	58cpaid	-74.3%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	33c	8,566$2,852 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,852.26	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	32c	8,135$2,592 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,592.39	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2c41…57a6backed Yes	5c	7,098$343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$343.12	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.10per pick	29cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	13c	6,924$883 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$882.97	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked Yes	5c	6,697$314 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313.73	43	16.3%7 W · 36 L	+2.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+246%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92e8…9f9ebacked Yes	0c	6,603$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a18…2ef0backed No	78c	6,391$4,969 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,421.54	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	3c	5,376$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,712$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.16	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce3…82f1backed Yes	14c	4,599$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.37	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce7b…b13ebacked Yes	16c	4,000$640 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$639.99	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	1c	3,896$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.86	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	3,843$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.31	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No	60c	3,783$2,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,494.51	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes	22c	3,500$757 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.14	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	41c	3,249$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,324.34	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	10c	3,176$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.62	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	23c	3,114$730 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$729.74	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	3,000$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	10c	3,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	66c	2,973$1,955 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,017.92	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	15c	2,800$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.92	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	2,766$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	12c	2,581$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes	35c	2,513$875 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$875	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	32c	2,500$791 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$790.78	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16e3…e2acbacked Yes	11c	2,494$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	2,402$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.97	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	11c	2,384$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.6	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6e39…3122backed Yes	2c	2,313$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.98	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	29c	2,300$670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$670	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	28c	2,276$646 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$646	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	25c	2,255$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.37	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaee7…bbcdbacked Yes	1c	2,250$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	303	10.9%33 W · 270 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+22.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	8c	2,228$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x261b…b32bbacked Yes	5c	2,100$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	37cpaid	-60.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes	4c	2,000$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-80%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	16c	2,000$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b24…f36abacked Yes	4c	1,913$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.69	192	29.2%56 W · 136 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd24c…eaf0backed Yes	6c	1,902$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x100d…923bbacked Yes	55c	1,862$1,023 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,023.25	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.55per pick	55cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	7c	1,826$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	13c	1,793$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.39	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c56…a4f4backed Yes	35c	1,750$612 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.5	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	3c	1,750$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.89	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x03f0…63e0backed Yes	1c	1,667$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	1,634$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.63	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x01c2…3193backed Yes	3c	1,620$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.19per pick	30cpaid	-74%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes	2c	1,617$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.88	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes	3c	1,568$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	33c	1,500$495 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$495	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	5c	1,500$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	9c	1,500$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	10c	1,491$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.14	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a4e…a436backed Yes	6c	1,446$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.39	6	50%3 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	-21%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d1…d734backed Yes	43c	1,409$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes	3c	1,403$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b04…6274backed No	58c	1,378$806 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$572.35	20	50%10 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.11per pick	39cpaid	+59.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	32c	1,343$433 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$433	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	19c	1,335$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.3	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No	57c	1,225$693 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$531.99	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa61a…5560backed No	62c	1,211$753 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$458.47	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.38per pick	62cpaid	+60.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	1,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes	2c	1,130$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.38	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8ac3…eda2backed Yes	1c	1,114$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	16c	1,110$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.9	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	2c	1,100$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.36	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	73c	1,087$794 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.4	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed Yes	23c	1,083$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7a2e…1e27backed Yes	46c	1,058$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.5wins	-0.46per pick	46cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc25a…f814backed Yes	45c	1,030$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.68	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes	47c	1,019$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.77	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-2.0wins	-0.12per pick	29cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x871a…1451backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	50c	1,000$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	12c	1,000$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	11c	1,000$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f37…bedebacked Yes	47c	1,000$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.3wins	+0.17per pick	34cpaid	+150%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x754f…4e38backed Yes	48c	1,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-64.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed No	50c	983.84$492 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.6	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8d9…9085backed Yes	5c	971.38$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	33cpaid	-76.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x560b…85d7backed Yes	2c	960.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	2cpaid	+1,061%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	42c	960$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.6	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa82a…be8cbacked Yes	40c	927.68$371 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$371.07	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xea63…1ebcbacked Yes	16c	920$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.5	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	43cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	43c	919.67$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.87	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd046…3432backed Yes	10c	917.17$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	16c	914.27$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.93	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dce…b2acbacked Yes	5c	904.59$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	164	17.1%28 W · 136 L	+6.8wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe5d4…e7f7backed Yes	33c	891.98$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.58	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event