Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc21479304a8793ebc495ca49d2d0c3a5eadd7f2b50fd7e021e46e89c5c3ed745

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 10, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $379,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $210,216

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $379,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	42,360$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.36	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	20,034$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.03	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb456…1774backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.2wins	-0.06per pick	11cpaid	-85.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ef7…2e2bbacked Yes	0c	19,370$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0425…9b90backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.3wins	-0.04per pick	21cpaid	-70.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4d3…c5afbacked Yes	0c	14,990$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa4d6…20f7backed Yes	0c	10,911$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36f8…6acfbacked Yes	0c	10,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7478…6562backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.1wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd24c…eaf0backed Yes	0c	8,007$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…951abacked Yes	2c	521.4$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event