TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,031,362
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,747,805

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,031,362 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 586 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes1c681,622$7,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,411.888206.6%54 W · 766 L+17.9wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d96…443ebacked Yes0c233,085$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x77ef…9f6abacked Yes0c129,420$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.762528%7 W · 18 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick19cpaid-31.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes1c119,440$902 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901.512968.1%24 W · 272 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+52.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee3b…8dcfbacked Yes10c51,114$5,359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,359.24333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-54.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb071…d064backed Yes0c40,000$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes5c36,655$1,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,905.494816.7%32 W · 449 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes58c36,617$21,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,374.8966222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf97a…30b7backed Yes0c29,702$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes1c26,179$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297588.6%5 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick10cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf899…6d7fbacked Yes0c26,139$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed No16c25,724$3,995 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,728.711,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes8c23,446$1,859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,859.147966.5%52 W · 744 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4e8…df4dbacked Yes1c21,388$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.131921.1%4 W · 15 L-3.4wins-0.18per pick39cpaid-60%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1a68…33bfbacked Yes0c16,247$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.54548.9%22 W · 23 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfd81…8626backed Yes0c16,117$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45520%1 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.08per pick12cpaid+173.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes1c15,721$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100666.1%4 W · 62 L-0.3wins0.00per pick6cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x519f…a393backed No75c15,555$11,676 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,878.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes9c15,029$1,424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.921,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes16c15,011$2,343 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,343.3217322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes2c15,000$370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3702825%7 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick21cpaid-29.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda67…1739backed Yes0c13,922$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60323.1%1 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick3cpaid+66.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes1c12,902$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1204822.9%11 W · 37 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-21.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes50c12,513$6,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,271.6428534.4%98 W · 187 L+9.1wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-19.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd427…05adbacked Yes2c11,958$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.3126516.6%44 W · 221 L+11.7wins+0.04per pick12cpaid+23.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1842…b628backed Yes1c11,330$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.26911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-47.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c91…b2febacked No79c10,939$8,662 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,277.08425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-68.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes17c10,377$1,799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.491809.4%17 W · 163 L-3.2wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-10.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes0c10,100$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.85325.3%28 W · 504 L+1.6wins0.00per pick5cpaid-68.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x68b8…5401backed Yes0c10,000$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401717.6%3 W · 14 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick11cpaid+86.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed No61c9,472$5,783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,689.442236.4%8 W · 14 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick30cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe9ed…e29cbacked Yes2c8,929$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$136.381539.8%15 W · 138 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick7cpaid-26.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd263…5af6backed Yes1c8,732$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+54.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…da3cbacked Yes0c8,633$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.09per pick11cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes51c8,175$4,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,131.453633.3%12 W · 24 L+2.3wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+101.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes14c7,998$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,119.716322.2%14 W · 49 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc164…74d4backed No51c7,965$4,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,940.721346.2%6 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.17per pick29cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes1c7,520$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$821438.4%12 W · 131 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick5cpaid-3.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcb0f…2052backed Yes1c7,492$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.15425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes1c7,476$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3641017.8%73 W · 337 L+0.3wins0.00per pick18cpaid-36.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes76c7,310$5,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,581.875311.3%6 W · 47 L-3.5wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-29.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes36c7,129$2,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,596.693915.4%6 W · 33 L-2.7wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-47.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes55c7,000$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.662412.3%77 W · 547 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick10cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c16…8bfabacked Yes1c6,700$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5040…df4abacked Yes0c6,667$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20336.1%2 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-55.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes15c5,990$901 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.8345715.1%69 W · 388 L-12.5wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-17.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes1c5,981$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.592213.6%3 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-26.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes4c5,530$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2095909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8fa6…4465backed Yes10c5,442$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.461811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick7cpaid+413.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9def…d1a5backed Yes23c5,172$1,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,185.653036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.5wins+0.05per pick32cpaid-11.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3719…2df0backed Yes10c5,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes69c4,963$3,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,412.1575122.2%167 W · 584 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid-35.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8acf…22e4backed Yes64c4,909$3,159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.351553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+11%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes22c4,894$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.7654122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0c00…06eebacked Yes2c4,849$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110520%1 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes4c4,755$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.31527.7%4 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-60.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes0c4,700$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.13119.4%6 W · 25 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes1c4,623$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.671010%1 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick18cpaid-80%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes22c4,330$972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972.3353817.3%93 W · 445 L-2.4wins0.00per pick18cpaid-34.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes6c4,319$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245395.1%2 W · 37 L-0.2wins0.00per pick6cpaid+8.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe537…b456backed Yes0c4,130$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Yes74c4,090$3,026 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,025.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.74per pick74cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes12c4,026$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$484.1399619.8%197 W · 799 L-15.9wins-0.02per pick21cpaid-43.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes1c4,026$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.692437%17 W · 226 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9879…f735backed Yes4c3,836$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140520%1 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick5cpaid+1,187.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e36…8463backed Yes1c3,750$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes20c3,606$731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.827818.7%68 W · 713 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf43…b321backed Yes18c3,500$629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$628.591428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-56.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes1c3,462$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.413312.1%4 W · 29 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes8c3,403$279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.76705.7%4 W · 66 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick7cpaid+12.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes60c3,400$2,028 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,02823019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5039…946dbacked Yes3c3,197$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1589…688bbacked No16c3,107$506 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,601.694316.3%7 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick11cpaid+246%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df6…8458backed Yes73c3,102$2,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,275.088031.3%25 W · 55 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x37b2…8681backed Yes1c3,072$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4223321%49 W · 184 L-8.0wins-0.03per pick24cpaid-32.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc1e0…3c65backed Yes1c3,059$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2540%0 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf0b…fd01backed Yes0c2,948$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes6c2,823$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.142,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c2,732$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.915045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes1c2,675$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510817.6%19 W · 89 L-0.2wins0.00per pick18cpaid+58.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed No48c2,631$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,362.3410325.2%26 W · 77 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes37c2,500$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.44513.3%6 W · 39 L-1.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes33c2,480$809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.014818.8%9 W · 39 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-19.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc295…dde9backed No69c2,349$1,618 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$731.313537.1%13 W · 22 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-29.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes80c2,326$1,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,860.3968615.7%108 W · 578 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick18cpaid-40%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes5c2,303$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.673511.4%4 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid+24.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes29c2,114$617 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$617.12725.9%7 W · 20 L+0.1wins0.00per pick26cpaid+33.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes10c2,104$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.859420.2%19 W · 75 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-15.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6cfb…fac1backed Yes1c2,050$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick19cpaid+33%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked No74c2,004$1,490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.412025%5 W · 15 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…9974backed Yes7c2,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.2wins-0.17per pick24cpaid+10.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No27c1,922$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,411.5631242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes14c1,873$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.955612.5%7 W · 49 L-4.1wins-0.07per pick20cpaid-41.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes24c1,835$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.6478811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6660…172bbacked Yes19c1,826$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$339.552425%6 W · 18 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f31…63d2backed Yes27c1,814$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.16333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+172.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc469…056abacked No66c1,803$1,186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$617.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes15c1,744$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260.3323831.1%74 W · 164 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick33cpaid-19.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe5b1…0346backed Yes1c1,735$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ac5…fe46backed Yes5c1,729$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.