Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x91d495f9390bd09166654e15b52c748d34b5a00bc82d75166d9e4f75939acc75

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 13, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $641,384
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $393,260

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $641,384 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 482 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc774…3d3ebacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	33,136$653 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$652.74	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	2c	14,700$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	13,156$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.78	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	25c	10,337$2,627 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,627.26	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	26c	9,469$2,459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,459	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb4d0…5bf7backed Yes	2c	7,620$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.54	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2d…6130backed Yes	32c	7,448$2,382 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,381.8	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	0c	7,400$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	4c	7,012$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.74	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c1…fa46backed Yes	4c	6,722$254 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$254.19	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0562…9d66backed Yes	26c	6,230$1,609 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,609.26	70	14.3%10 W · 60 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	24c	5,000$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,196.08	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No	67c	4,998$3,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,625.55	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2ec0…f7aabacked Yes	21c	4,888$1,031 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,030.92	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	4c	4,715$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.39	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	4c	4,648$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.17	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	76c	4,588$3,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,088.77	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa4d6…20f7backed Yes	26c	4,032$1,047 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,046.7	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	33c	3,622$1,195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,194.86	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x8bae…5199backed Yes	1c	3,554$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.19	55	9.1%5 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1142…a9bfbacked Yes	17c	3,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	35c	3,000$1,050 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,050	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	30c	2,800$853 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$853.5	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	1c	2,779$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4ff…24a5backed Yes	30c	2,584$769 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$768.6	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08ce…f301backed Yes	16c	2,505$393 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$393.5	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	-4.1wins	-0.07per pick	20cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8f5…94c1backed Yes	36c	2,470$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.7	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-1.9wins	-0.32per pick	49cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	13c	2,439$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$314.65	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e5b…a593backed Yes	21c	2,409$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-55.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	18c	2,284$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.64	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	31c	2,262$698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	22c	2,135$473 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$472.54	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52c7…25e4backed Yes	1c	2,069$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9b7b…a88dbacked No	74c	2,019$1,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$518.86	44	36.4%16 W · 28 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	37cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	19c	2,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.99	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	26c	1,953$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.16	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x879f…8417backed Yes	14c	1,919$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa47b…a496backed Yes	22c	1,899$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$424.74	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	20c	1,826$356 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.31	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8178…dc7abacked Yes	37c	1,782$659 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$659.19	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	+9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c56…a4f4backed Yes	34c	1,750$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-1.1wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x66d1…d734backed Yes	3c	1,718$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	34c	1,673$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$570.41	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40ac…ee4bbacked Yes	26c	1,638$424 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.84	16	37.5%6 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	20c	1,614$329 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$329.06	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce05…9176backed Yes	19c	1,500$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.71	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-1.7wins	-0.13per pick	28cpaid	-63.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	12c	1,500$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5713…e818backed Yes	28c	1,445$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	23	13%3 W · 20 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	20c	1,414$279 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes	13c	1,409$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8981…ce82backed No	78c	1,390$1,089 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$301.02	181	63%114 W · 67 L	+4.1wins	+0.02per pick	61cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9faa…bbedbacked No	66c	1,332$877 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.75	175	16.6%29 W · 146 L	-3.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-16%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7bf…b02dbacked Yes	38c	1,310$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.38per pick	38cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74a2…2ab4backed Yes	19c	1,308$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x858b…b832backed Yes	31c	1,180$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.79	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.3wins	-0.31per pick	31cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8535…247ebacked Yes	2c	1,152$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed Yes	35c	1,145$401 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400.6	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9bdb…a90dbacked Yes	25c	1,117$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$279.63	16	6.3%1 W · 15 L	-2.2wins	-0.13per pick	20cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,088$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.57	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x47ea…6083backed Yes	28c	1,067$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.24	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	27c	1,050$283 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$282.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd93…a22bbacked Yes	39c	1,031$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	198	19.7%39 W · 159 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bb4…917dbacked Yes	25c	1,024$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.92	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.3wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a84…3788backed Yes	37c	1,000$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	68	23.5%16 W · 52 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f6b…fba5backed Yes	12c	999.99$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x871a…1451backed Yes	18c	999.98$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	20c	999.98$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	13c	957.95$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.75	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes	13c	955$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x552c…be63backed Yes	21c	951.4$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.61	143	14%20 W · 123 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc951…7adcbacked Yes	1c	941.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	-32.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	12c	926.76$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.83	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x430e…ed6dbacked No	78c	915.99$717 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.04	209	73.2%153 W · 56 L	+16.3wins	+0.08per pick	65cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd046…3432backed Yes	39c	915.31$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef10…97edbacked Yes	3c	900$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	34c	887.89$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.13	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcc83…3a40backed Yes	23c	866.03$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.11per pick	25cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes	15c	848.02$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No	65c	799.99$520 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$279.99	155	20.6%32 W · 123 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb35a…272dbacked Yes	38c	798.79$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.8wins	-0.39per pick	39cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe80…e0a6backed Yes	28c	794.69$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.2	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.9wins	-0.27per pick	42cpaid	-80.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	21c	762.1$162 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.84	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	19c	746.93$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.05	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	23c	739$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.97	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb6b7…169bbacked Yes	34c	729.37$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.66	28	14.3%4 W · 24 L	-2.3wins	-0.08per pick	22cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	37c	700$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x111d…85f7backed Yes	30c	689.49$206 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.63	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	76c	686$521 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$165.17	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02a5…0cbdbacked Yes	38c	656.41$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	43cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4839…6d90backed Yes	17c	649.99$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.1	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	19c	639.29$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes	15c	623.85$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.14	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	75c	616.85$462 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$154.71	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf8a2…c111backed Yes	26c	606.57$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	33c	601.85$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6471…457abacked Yes	37c	600$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224	25	20%5 W · 20 L	-1.9wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x005e…849ebacked Yes	17c	588.24$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.2wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event