TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64e3…e3f5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
86
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: NBA, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category NBA at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST4214.3%6 W · 36 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+34.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 42 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$37
Bill Ackman tweets another manifesto by November 30? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST+300%+$37.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$32.4
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$10.05
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST-100%-$13.56
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+2,154.7%+$412.84
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$41.8
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$57.2
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$31.8
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$33.12
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$27.14
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$22.95
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$21.35
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$27.55
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$15.45
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$68.2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$59.85
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$28.63
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+478.9%+$304.59
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$77Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$76.53
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$19.2
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 20, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$11.81
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+1,661.3%+$511.08
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$89.18
Showing 25 of 42 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Dec 1, 2025, EST1136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.8wins+0.17per pick20cpaid+55.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
NBA — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hawks vs. Pistonsbacked Hawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$86.5
Pelicans vs. Lakersbacked Pelicans · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Mavericks vs. Clippersbacked Mavericks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+354.5%+$63.46
Nets vs. Bucksbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$221Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$221.35
Suns vs. Thunderbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 29, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Timberwolves vs. Kingsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+400%+$68
Knicks vs. Netsbacked Nets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$19.55
Kings vs. Nuggetsbacked Kings · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$51Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+426.3%+$217.42
Thunder vs. Jazzbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$119Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$119.4
Rockets vs. Cavaliersbacked Cavaliers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST-100%-$63
Suns vs. Trail Blazersbacked Suns · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 19, 2025, EST+127.3%+$35.64
All 11 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST1127.3%3 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.08per pick20cpaid-21.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Carlos Alcaraz vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$35
ATP World Tour Finals, Final Stage: Jannik Sinner vs Alex de Minaurbacked Minaur · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 15, 2025, EST-100%-$11.05
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST+155.5%+$94.9
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Ben Sheltonbacked Shelton · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$15
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Carlos Alcaraz vs Lorenzo Musettibacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Alexander Zverevbacked Zverev · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$12
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Ben Shelton vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST+57.5%+$17.52
ATP World Tour Finals, Bjorn Borg Group: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger-Aliassimebacked Auger-Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$12
US Open: Jannik Sinner vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 6, 2025, EDT-100%-$100
US Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Jiri Leheckabacked Mannarino · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$16.32
US Open: Alexander Zverev vs Felix Auger Aliassimebacked Aliassime · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 31, 2025, EDT+349.7%+$87.54
All 11 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Nov 28, 2025, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+78.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Nov 24, 2025, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick16cpaid+257.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Buccaneers vs. Ramsbacked Buccaneers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$17
Eagles vs. Cowboysbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+1,328.6%+$265.71
Lions vs. Ravensbacked Ravens · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 23, 2025, EDT-100%-$25.5
Cowboys vs. Eaglesbacked Cowboys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$50
All 4 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Qarabağ Ağdam FK win on 2025-11-25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$105
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$904Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$904.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved Sep 25, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will CA River Plate win on 2025-09-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Sep 26, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.