Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d5d2f850188266727bd60d2fdd288d6d645fb838d64f0454ada125739dd5e24

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $980,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $633,679

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $980,752 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 632 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	4c	82,371$3,131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,130.57	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x063a…eb4bbacked Yes	7c	66,935$4,930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,930.33	36	33.3%12 W · 24 L	+2.3wins	+0.07per pick	27cpaid	+101.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed Yes	10c	62,446$6,373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,372.99	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	12c	61,943$7,296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,295.86	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	17c	40,000$6,740 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,740	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	15c	22,000$3,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,239.99	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe51f…473dbacked Yes	0c	20,523$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.65	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	11c	14,358$1,546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,546.26	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	13,322$2,386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,385.5	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	24c	10,567$2,574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,574.44	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	10,149$1,647 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,646.59	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5844…aa7ebacked Yes	1c	10,094$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.13	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	9cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	3c	10,000$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	24c	9,454$2,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,273.6	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	71c	8,326$5,914 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,411.09	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked No	76c	7,615$5,761 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,854.28	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f9…f619backed Yes	19c	7,000$1,363 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,362.91	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	-1.8wins	-0.08per pick	31cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	14c	6,060$862 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$862.36	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	10c	5,969$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.48	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	11c	5,455$613 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$612.73	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	24c	4,811$1,179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,178.68	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	18c	4,790$853 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$852.78	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	20c	4,558$925 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$924.76	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca88…efb2backed No	68c	4,327$2,925 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,401.91	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.03per pick	47cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	7c	4,189$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.04	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	20c	4,010$796 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$796.14	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	23c	4,000$911 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$910.59	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	3,872$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.71	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	19c	3,664$693 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$693	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	3,153$2,271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$882.16	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	22c	3,100$695 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$694.99	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	23c	3,098$708 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$708.18	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	18c	3,000$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	3,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x03ed…4927backed Yes	30c	2,674$800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$800	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	47cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	26c	2,649$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	27c	2,496$665 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$665.45	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	3c	2,484$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.95	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	31c	2,471$760 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$760	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cde…b42abacked Yes	15c	2,400$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368	85	8.2%7 W · 78 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	31c	2,397$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$750.6	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	15c	2,360$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$353	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	30c	2,334$703 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$702.92	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd712…228dbacked Yes	4c	2,300$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	15cpaid	-71.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xef38…02e2backed Yes	15c	2,244$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	27c	2,237$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$608.47	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4221…e74bbacked Yes	9c	2,193$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.29	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa656…6db5backed Yes	27c	2,188$589 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.24	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3853…2bb9backed No	78c	2,183$1,708 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$474.71	3	100%3 W · 0 L	+0.7wins	+0.22per pick	78cpaid	+28.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x88cb…2c20backed Yes	3c	2,180$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.5	108	11.1%12 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+70.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x366c…6578backed Yes	11c	2,032$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.27	13	38.5%5 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	34cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	11c	2,026$217 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$217.01	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No	77c	2,025$1,552 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$472.74	315	65.1%205 W · 110 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	65cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7d8f…97e9backed Yes	30c	2,000$595 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$595	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.12per pick	32cpaid	-74.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.99	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No	73c	1,880$1,367 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$512.15	312	42.9%134 W · 178 L	+20.0wins	+0.06per pick	37cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes	19c	1,855$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	15c	1,782$268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.03	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x19e8…405fbacked No	79c	1,775$1,399 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.67	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-1.2wins	-0.39per pick	72cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	8c	1,749$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.84	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0c86…c4f6backed Yes	16c	1,610$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	19cpaid	-76.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x875d…25cfbacked Yes	32c	1,587$506 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$506.03	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb2c0…c100backed Yes	28c	1,584$447 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.18	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	24c	1,578$386 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.05	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	35c	1,562$547 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$546.76	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	32c	1,445$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$458.47	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7795…1db8backed Yes	27c	1,430$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	25cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2982…5a7cbacked No	73c	1,420$1,041 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$378.95	31	25.8%8 W · 23 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	50c	1,399$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	17c	1,371$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.7	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ce6…107cbacked Yes	22c	1,360$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x19d4…ef88backed Yes	31c	1,353$417 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.31	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.2wins	+0.12per pick	38cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6050…21c9backed No	61c	1,350$826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$524.5	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.39per pick	61cpaid	+63.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x13b5…78dfbacked Yes	40c	1,349$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.40per pick	40cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5c80…9564backed Yes	4c	1,328$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.83	179	20.7%37 W · 142 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf90b…cb6cbacked Yes	38c	1,321$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	4	50%2 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	-14%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8c4…7b11backed No	78c	1,300$1,019 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281	15	60%9 W · 6 L	+1.4wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	12c	1,277$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150.85	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	75c	1,266$952 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$314.27	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	71cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	10c	1,255$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe23…4489backed Yes	12c	1,250$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	10c	1,250$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.4	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb009…b498backed Yes	25c	1,248$309 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$309.17	34	23.5%8 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	12c	1,229$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.92	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	35c	1,224$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.02	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	18c	1,219$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc18f…f929backed Yes	13c	1,219$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	25	20%5 W · 20 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7cb…3385backed No	65c	1,202$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$422.54	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.4wins	+0.35per pick	65cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	21c	1,200$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$252	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	12c	1,200$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.6	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	12c	1,200$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.98	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf81…a3ffbacked Yes	37c	1,180$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.65	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.37per pick	37cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5339…9da3backed No	69c	1,121$772 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$348.96	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+2.4wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	27c	1,107$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.2	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa956…666fbacked Yes	15c	1,101$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	65	21.5%14 W · 51 L	-5.7wins	-0.09per pick	30cpaid	-53%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	21c	1,100$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	23c	1,087$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	5c	1,080$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.8	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…a9debacked Yes	31c	1,040$320 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.6wins	-0.20per pick	32cpaid	-75.2%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event