Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac8731111562f10f4fc3dbc1607796d11d55b8d32cf3ee62334fbf1922739b2b

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $142,634
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $54,697

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,634 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 5 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	27,000$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	15,126$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.13	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa0…c6acbacked Yes	0c	11,201$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	7	0%0 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a2d…d491backed Yes	0c	10,340$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbcd…bc96backed Yes	0c	6,029$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event