Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0830950043b11477a8e7226f03285ac0c278cc37b358eb19ca82ad34ea1c7810

Rebuilt 46 minutes ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 19, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $804,677
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $454,455

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $804,677 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	0c	55,000$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	0c	42,961$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3973…b13ebacked Yes	0c	25,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1f…81e6backed Yes	0c	20,934$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.09	70	5.7%4 W · 66 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	0c	18,560$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.68	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x129a…c44abacked Yes	0c	13,560$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	13,079$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,614$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.61	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf979…0ebebacked Yes	0c	12,259$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.26	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	11,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7815…5400backed Yes	0c	10,400$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.4	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	-49.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ee3…317bbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	0c	9,771$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.29	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,169$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	0c	9,162$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.76	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	7,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	0c	5,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf07…4b64backed Yes	3c	5,092$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x080a…39a3backed Yes	1c	4,780$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.93	3	0%0 W · 3 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf33d…9554backed Yes	2c	3,510$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.78	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,125$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	3,120$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	1c	2,170$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.23	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	2,017$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.32	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f6…bbacbacked Yes	2c	2,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4839…6d90backed Yes	7c	1,314$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	1c	1,287$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.82	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7600…0773backed Yes	3c	930.67$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.29	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa16f…b703backed Yes	1c	875.83$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56e5…fd88backed Yes	4c	544.36$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.56	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	3c	319.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ed1…a7fbbacked Yes	5c	311.9$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.45	159	11.9%19 W · 140 L	-6.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed Yes	8c	250$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedfd…bc3ebacked Yes	9c	220.89$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd729…d97ebacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event