Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3aaa25a6d5ab241cd9aa6671ca6a3ff2139c7dae9a794dae9fe3bb5dde48da25

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $545,926
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $110,732

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $545,926 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	169,999$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	1c	30,001$419 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$419.44	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	21,200$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.2	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	1c	20,631$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.31	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	18,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	2c	18,000$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6abc…cc5bbacked Yes	0c	11,885$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.89	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d4…1b12backed Yes	0c	10,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8fe…ce76backed Yes	0c	7,984$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	46	6.5%3 W · 43 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes	0c	7,600$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.2	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	6,372$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	0c	5,863$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.49	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c45…f81abacked Yes	0c	5,035$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	2,700$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.8	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	4c	2,364$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.44	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,974$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.4	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9521…766bbacked Yes	1c	1,674$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	243	7%17 W · 226 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,519$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.75	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	2c	1,500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.3	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	2c	1,076$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.26	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.9	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	3c	999.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.32	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	3c	999.03$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.73	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	2c	787$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.72	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes	2c	699.98$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.3	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	578$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	4c	542.86$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cf9…b7d4backed Yes	3c	503$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.76	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	+242.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	3c	500$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes	4c	305.16$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event