Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0510f1bbbec6d7063a08bcdbf2f4fb883b05ec80be995506f99d2040e9972249

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $774,985
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $401,803

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $774,985 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 256 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	151,009$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$678.04	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	51,887$946 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$945.94	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	18c	30,000$5,520 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,519.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	8c	20,224$1,649 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,649.14	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	9c	18,500$1,672 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,672.5	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe448…7ebfbacked Yes	1c	17,600$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.8	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	5c	14,310$756 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$756.08	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	8,144$527 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$527	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	2c	7,724$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.61	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	4c	6,602$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.5	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	6c	5,562$351 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$351.13	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	8c	5,500$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$448.22	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,850$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.23	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes	8c	4,696$372 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$372.02	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	7c	4,463$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.65	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	4,455$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.61	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,451$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	16c	4,000$658 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$657.96	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	17c	3,918$678 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$677.65	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	9c	3,437$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.97	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,165$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.45	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	8c	3,000$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes	1c	2,857$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	9c	2,850$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.58	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	12c	2,759$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.54	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Yes	0c	2,565$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.65	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+445.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6859…3308backed Yes	20c	2,560$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.06per pick	23cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	2,554$373 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$373	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	2,500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	2c	2,397$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.81	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	9c	2,251$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.83	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	11c	2,183$247 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$247.3	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	2,158$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	4c	2,080$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.37	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	18c	2,000$352 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.01	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	7c	1,962$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.38	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	1,950$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.75	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	13c	1,904$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.96	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58f2…a3e2backed Yes	11c	1,869$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	4c	1,728$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.25	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	6c	1,654$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.33	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	6c	1,602$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes	13c	1,526$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes	15c	1,500$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$225.6	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ce6…107cbacked Yes	7c	1,500$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.5	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde71…070ebacked Yes	11c	1,485$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-1.1wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31e…4deebacked Yes	4c	1,349$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c0…c100backed Yes	10c	1,335$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.36	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	3c	1,224$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.09	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	15c	1,178$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.87	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1255…fa6fbacked Yes	9c	1,132$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	14c	1,095$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa656…6db5backed Yes	3c	1,004$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	3c	1,000$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes	14c	1,000$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb430…0448backed Yes	1c	1,000$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	+17.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x331b…3dacbacked Yes	6c	999.98$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	14c	992.79$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes	20c	989.96$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	986.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.79	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x875d…25cfbacked Yes	2c	984.54$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bc4…df1ebacked Yes	11c	929.25$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	12c	923$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.84	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	3c	918.06$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.07	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc92e…343dbacked Yes	11c	911.72$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.3	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	13c	897.06$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.78	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	9c	891.21$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.74	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	2c	864.73$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.04	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	15c	800$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.02	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5300…d039backed Yes	10c	773$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.3	64	12.5%8 W · 56 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	7cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9519…9739backed Yes	13c	744.81$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	65	18.5%12 W · 53 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb761…253abacked Yes	2c	740.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.26	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf276…0ddebacked Yes	18c	740$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.52	20	15%3 W · 17 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-74.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	14c	735.28$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	17c	706$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.61	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9b…44fdbacked Yes	9c	700.1$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.59	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	4c	700$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.6	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf614…689abacked Yes	15c	682.61$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	2c	674.71$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.99	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	6c	668.97$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.05	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	6c	668.05$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.67	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	16c	664.97$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.4	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	8c	660$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.48	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	8c	652.91$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.35	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e60…3736backed Yes	16c	640.56$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	5c	628.93$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.04	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	13c	602.86$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.4	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	600.52$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.42	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	10c	600$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd507…9b56backed Yes	8c	582.34$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.52	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.8wins	+0.07per pick	11cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5dd6…2d0cbacked Yes	13c	575.37$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.18	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	26cpaid	+4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2608…5ca8backed Yes	18c	562.51$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	12c	560.94$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.87	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes	3c	555.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	421	10%42 W · 379 L	+1.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5d5e…26d5backed Yes	3c	550$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	21	28.6%6 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+226.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bd6…1833backed Yes	12c	550$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.15	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3911…413fbacked Yes	17c	542.02$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	+2.7wins	+0.12per pick	20cpaid	+30%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	6c	529.41$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.29	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xef38…02e2backed Yes	16c	529.41$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.87	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event