Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94ebcf60dde1473509f561788718163e405bcdaed33b85145e12c7ede6118e5d

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $597,977
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $220,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $597,977 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	144,999$460 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	7c	30,000$2,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,039.99	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	6c	21,000$1,196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,196	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	3c	19,618$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.99	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	19,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38a3…fe34backed Yes	0c	13,655$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	89	0%0 W · 89 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	7c	7,954$578 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$578.28	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb761…253abacked Yes	0c	7,779$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.23	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	6c	5,385$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.95	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,011$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.97	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	3c	3,652$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbea3…e34fbacked Yes	0c	3,414$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	68	14.7%10 W · 58 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+18.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	5c	3,300$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,139$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.88	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	5c	2,362$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.6	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	6c	2,175$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.4	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	3c	2,140$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.36	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x556e…d5ccbacked Yes	7c	2,068$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153.57	5	40%2 W · 3 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	19cpaid	+218.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	2,000$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,942$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.36	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	1c	1,840$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.28	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes	7c	1,774$121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.48	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	2c	1,684$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.34	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	9c	1,669$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146.7	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	5c	1,625$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.79	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed Yes	3c	1,620$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.08	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	1,551$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.67	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	1,500$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	1,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,322$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	2c	1,301$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.51	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	11c	1,100$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$118.05	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x50b8…2349backed Yes	7c	1,091$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.96	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	9c	1,079$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef38…02e2backed Yes	10c	1,021$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed Yes	4c	1,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x306b…00c4backed Yes	6c	951$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.29	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6ffc…1552backed Yes	11c	920.75$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	7c	900$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.9	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	5c	800$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.3	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	6c	799.99$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.6	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x41f8…96afbacked Yes	8c	796.64$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.3wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	4c	656.32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.4	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bd6…1833backed Yes	9c	654.98$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	5c	652.7$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.12	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11be…803cbacked Yes	11c	650$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.76	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	9c	630.34$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.45	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc2…878abacked Yes	2c	611.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9879…f735backed Yes	3c	605.18$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.8wins	+0.15per pick	5cpaid	+1,187.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	601.85$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.56	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x618f…f2f3backed Yes	3c	548.54$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.41	67	13.4%9 W · 58 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	9c	537.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x865a…f1ecbacked Yes	4c	535.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-47.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	6c	528.05$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	10c	524.92$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	8c	500.13$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.8	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	10c	500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	6c	500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	7c	499.99$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.3	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	2c	499.98$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	7c	489.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	7c	446.3$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc92e…343dbacked Yes	9c	404.32$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.12	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe898…7116backed Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.1	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…6f0ebacked Yes	4c	374.69$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.8	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	5c	372.47$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8936…79ebbacked Yes	4c	371.52$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	31	22.6%7 W · 24 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde9b…44fdbacked Yes	3c	365.14$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.21	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	10c	354.1$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.61	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	7c	334.34$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6e60…9e3fbacked Yes	5c	310$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.37	37	21.6%8 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2608…5ca8backed Yes	7c	300.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.0wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	8c	300$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.8	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe380…654abacked Yes	11c	278.14$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-40.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ad7…5434backed Yes	6c	260.34$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.18per pick	18cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	6c	256.62$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x680f…3595backed Yes	6c	254.19$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+19%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes	9c	243.21$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x152b…c4d7backed Yes	10c	242.6$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb179…8cf4backed Yes	6c	219.98$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.64	20	5%1 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.08per pick	13cpaid	-86.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	9c	217.39$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	5c	214$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.51	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a0f…baf9backed Yes	5c	212.09$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2967…7755backed Yes	6c	212$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes	5c	210$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.45	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	204.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.88	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf8a9…6da5backed Yes	10c	202.02$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.2	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	-2.2wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-57.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x23b4…113abacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+1.8wins	+0.20per pick	13cpaid	+253.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x10f8…9ac9backed Yes	8c	200$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.3wins	-0.26per pick	26cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	6c	185.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.72	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x28b3…7af3backed Yes	9c	177$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.93	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5422…f6b0backed Yes	7c	151.68$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe988…1291backed Yes	8c	148.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-73.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x369d…a2d2backed Yes	9c	110.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x777e…d384backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event