Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc480526413ff6a3fe0b9479c1b713bb133105178d25e15375c01282676ee5905

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $918,406
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $532,043

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $918,406 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 413 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	138,783$1,220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,219.98	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes	0c	40,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+76%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	2c	37,469$888 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$887.58	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	20c	30,000$5,850 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,849.98	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	5c	28,930$1,528 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,527.95	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	1c	26,681$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	14c	17,174$2,470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,469.81	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	14,446$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.23	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	16c	14,095$2,205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,204.64	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	1c	12,906$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	7c	11,245$732 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.62	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	11c	10,189$1,125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,125.14	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	8c	9,169$698 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$698.03	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	16c	8,750$1,400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.99	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	13c	8,179$1,096 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,096	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	8c	8,155$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.71	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	7c	6,284$459 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$459.3	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	5,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.25	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	4,779$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.76	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	14c	4,511$622 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$622.23	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	4,494$696 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$696	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes	1c	4,458$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	89	9%8 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-44.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	11c	4,155$444 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$443.85	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	10c	4,103$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$417.7	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	1c	3,800$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.6	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	5c	3,631$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.4	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42ed…5ebabacked Yes	21c	3,006$616 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$616.23	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	2c	3,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	2c	3,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb042…14f3backed Yes	18c	2,950$543 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$543.16	103	25.2%26 W · 77 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	14c	2,926$411 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.25	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ce6…107cbacked Yes	10c	2,646$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.47	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59e…06edbacked Yes	19c	2,501$481 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$481.01	49	22.4%11 W · 38 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1528…35ecbacked Yes	14c	2,500$353 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$352.5	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	13c	2,483$311 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$311.13	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	3c	2,450$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.45	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	10c	2,411$241 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.63	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	11c	2,338$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.19	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	2,247$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	20c	2,145$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.84	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes	22c	2,002$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8331…965abacked Yes	3c	2,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.0wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+445.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ea9…a10bbacked Yes	20c	1,987$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.96	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-57.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	6c	1,814$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.03	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x91f5…b7e4backed Yes	12c	1,719$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.18per pick	32cpaid	-79.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	12c	1,698$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$199.86	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	18c	1,674$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.74	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	1,661$267 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$267.24	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8bb…21bfbacked Yes	8c	1,652$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.24per pick	24cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	1,638$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2c0…c100backed Yes	18c	1,638$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.54	46	19.6%9 W · 37 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	7c	1,627$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.23	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea10…b758backed Yes	18c	1,505$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.59	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,504$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.11	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6778…226abacked Yes	15c	1,500$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.34	34	20.6%7 W · 27 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	9c	1,479$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.81	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	12c	1,473$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.38	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	21c	1,434$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	3c	1,402$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.95	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	15c	1,397$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.82	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6fe7…2229backed Yes	17c	1,300$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.56	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	30cpaid	+13%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	79c	1,266$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.74	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc33b…2372backed Yes	4c	1,262$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0aec…74fcbacked Yes	18c	1,248$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes	19c	1,233$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3103…ea70backed Yes	9c	1,224$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.34	139	26.6%37 W · 102 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8fd…4373backed Yes	13c	1,188$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.83	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x87e1…5998backed No	80c	1,187$947 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.09	155	20.6%32 W · 123 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	15c	1,155$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	6c	1,154$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.98	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,127$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.24	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa656…6db5backed Yes	16c	1,111$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.69	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	16c	1,110$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.91	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	13c	1,109$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.26	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb2d9…0136backed Yes	20c	1,102$225 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.99	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	23cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes	13c	1,100$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.2	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	23c	1,075$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x013b…01cfbacked Yes	19c	1,073$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	84	17.9%15 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	22c	1,061$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.9	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d8f…75e6backed Yes	17c	1,034$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	43	20.9%9 W · 34 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbd11…3401backed Yes	15c	1,026$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	-3.3wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-60.4%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes	10c	1,011$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.86	526	19.8%104 W · 422 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe23…4489backed Yes	14c	1,001$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.17	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.12per pick	26cpaid	-53.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d49…bf50backed Yes	23c	1,000$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5884…9466backed No	78c	1,000$779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$221	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-2.0wins	-0.18per pick	37cpaid	-55.2%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdb13…9b49backed Yes	3c	993.95$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-67%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x439c…b82cbacked Yes	23c	965.22$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.72	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.6wins	-0.11per pick	31cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xde9b…44fdbacked Yes	18c	950.33$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.22	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	16cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	15c	931.43$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.44	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc90b…cb24backed Yes	15c	910$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.53	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+1.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x680d…98b8backed Yes	23c	860.59$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	10c	858.21$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.78	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	15c	852.59$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.91	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef38…02e2backed Yes	12c	850$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	25	12%3 W · 22 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	-33.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	17c	813.63$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.59	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb8…3fe7backed Yes	15c	807.87$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.2wins	-0.20per pick	20cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x152b…c4d7backed Yes	21c	804.93$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe3c…a835backed Yes	17c	799.98$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139	55	12.7%7 W · 48 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-17.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x44e6…9d9ebacked Yes	13c	769.97$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.1	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+1.0wins	+0.11per pick	11cpaid	+112%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	17c	750.65$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.61	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event