Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e7c18c8e411f55797d8bb66ff791b915b398ab2aa4aaef2f4fb17ce55695c4f

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 21, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $598,773
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $215,255

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $598,773 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	122,210$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.11	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7902…170cbacked Yes	0c	30,980$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.98	79	0%0 W · 79 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6abc…cc5bbacked Yes	0c	30,629$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b66…02edbacked Yes	4c	30,000$1,140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,139.89	180	9.4%17 W · 163 L	-3.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	5c	20,390$1,108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,108.2	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	3c	17,779$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$491.73	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	1c	12,980$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.58	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes	3c	9,265$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.55	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	9,178$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.54	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,695$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.89	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	4,548$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.25	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	0c	4,435$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	3,900$157 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.3	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	3,703$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.87	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf67c…d506backed Yes	1c	3,680$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-2.3wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-56.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0aa6…b38fbacked Yes	1c	3,479$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	3,384$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.72	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	3c	3,375$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.59	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	2c	2,639$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.62	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bc2…878abacked Yes	1c	2,329$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.0wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	4c	2,308$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	7c	1,784$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.65	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	1,742$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.59	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	1c	1,625$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x134f…cdb6backed Yes	1c	1,545$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	22	36.4%8 W · 14 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Yes	2c	1,478$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.98	62	16.1%10 W · 52 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-66.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	4c	1,359$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.6	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xecf8…603bbacked Yes	7c	1,356$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	29	10.3%3 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	13cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	4c	1,330$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306b…00c4backed Yes	6c	1,238$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.26	21	0%0 W · 21 L	-2.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	5c	1,018$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.6	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	6c	1,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7f2…1362backed Yes	6c	1,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.86	48	10.4%5 W · 43 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	2c	1,000$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd42b…48c8backed Yes	4c	999.99$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.36	246	8.5%21 W · 225 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	3c	897.11$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.52	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c0f…6f0ebacked Yes	2c	738.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.86	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	6c	634.48$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.28	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	9c	562.89$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3238…1521backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	126	6.3%8 W · 118 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a84…a46bbacked Yes	7c	500$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11be…803cbacked Yes	10c	400$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.34	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-77.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca1…e1a9backed Yes	5c	322.23$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5526…8ffabacked Yes	4c	301.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	100	16%16 W · 84 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0927…6486backed Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	145	15.2%22 W · 123 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	21cpaid	-55.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4745…5916backed Yes	7c	250$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.75	27	48.1%13 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x369d…a2d2backed Yes	9c	249.66$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.72	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64e3…e3f5backed Yes	9c	237.91$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.35	42	14.3%6 W · 36 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+34.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	9c	230.46$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8a9…6da5backed Yes	9c	226.75$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x152b…c4d7backed Yes	11c	224.2$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	34	14.7%5 W · 29 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-39.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9a3f…914abacked Yes	7c	200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	31	38.7%12 W · 19 L	+3.0wins	+0.10per pick	29cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes	7c	199.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.62	22	27.3%6 W · 16 L	+3.8wins	+0.17per pick	10cpaid	+196.7%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x680f…3595backed Yes	7c	179.5$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.9wins	+0.09per pick	11cpaid	+19%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x28b3…7af3backed Yes	6c	176.95$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc92e…343dbacked Yes	9c	163.04$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.5wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbeaa…a0f8backed Yes	8c	150$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…73cebacked Yes	8c	126$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event