TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x4e60…3736

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Middle East, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 56 out of 100; worst La Liga at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Nov 30, 2025, EST219.5%2 W · 19 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-29.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$70
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$60
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+660.6%+$396.33
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+622.9%+$373.72
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$17.2
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$23.3
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$40
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 21 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 19, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick61cpaid-11.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Nuggets vs. Grizzliesbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Suns vs. Spursbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+40.8%+$11.6
Team World vs. Team USA Starsbacked Team World · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$62
Trail Blazers vs. Jazzbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+51.5%+$34
Thunder vs. Sunsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST+42.9%+$21
Trail Blazers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$40
76ers vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$43Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+132.6%+$57
Clippers vs. Timberwolvesbacked Timberwolves · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$22.5
Pacers vs. Raptorsbacked Raptors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+29.9%+$13.8
Knicks vs. Celticsbacked Celtics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$49.6
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+33.3%+$20
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+42.9%+$24
Deni Avdija: Points O/U 26.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Trail Blazers vs. Wizardsbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 27, 2026, EST-100%-$69
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicansbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+33.3%+$3.67
Suns vs. Clippersbacked Clippers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Spurs vs. Lakersbacked Lakers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+194.1%+$38.82
All 17 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 26, 2026, EST1553.3%8 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+1,042.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$550Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$550
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 29, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$2,209Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+92%+$2,032.3
Hezbollah strike on Israel by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$151.7
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+42.9%+$66.49
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 28, 2025, EST+159.2%+$20.69
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 26, 2025, EST-100%-$247.66
Will Israel strike Greater Beirut by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$1,571Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 23, 2025, EST+34.9%+$548.41
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2025, EST-100%-$137.87
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST+56.2%+$31.96
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 11?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$400Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+184.5%+$737.86
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$1,574Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST+68.9%+$1,084.21
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$100
Will Israel strike Lebanon on November 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 6, 2025, EST+15,705.3%+$10,051.42
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 4, 2025, EST-100%-$50
All 15 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST40%0 W · 4 L-2.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
La Liga — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Champions League Inactivelast resolved Nov 5, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.77per pick23cpaid+334.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Club Brugge KV vs. FC Barcelona end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 5, 2025, EST+334.8%+$67.7
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 15, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-02-15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST+66.7%+$16
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Nov 9, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2025-11-09?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 9, 2025, EST+25%+$50
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Nov 10, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ATP World Tour Finals, Jimmy Connors Group: Lorenzo Musetti vs Taylor Fritzbacked Musetti · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 10, 2025, EST-100%-$70
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Nov 17, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Montenegro win on 2025-11-17?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$1,056Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 17, 2025, EST-100%-$1,056
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.