Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8a0b6939638b205236c113079690f8292b3481e5b3cc361e3d264464bb74d5

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 16, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $855,490
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $605,136

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $855,490 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 194 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0228…a700backed Yes	1c	61,871$724 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$724	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	25,310$490 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$490.22	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	2c	20,906$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470.27	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	19,956$514 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$513.51	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	2c	14,770$349 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.07	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	0c	13,993$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.3	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	2c	13,625$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes	1c	12,772$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.49	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8be…c8d1backed Yes	0c	10,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xd68c…fcb2backed Yes	1c	9,371$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.91	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.7wins	+0.13per pick	7cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	8,431$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.75	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b11…a0f9backed Yes	2c	8,260$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-1.1wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	7,055$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.74	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,629$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.5	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	6,323$1,111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,111.42	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes	2c	5,579$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$93.19	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	4c	4,636$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.89	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	6c	4,457$284 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$284.13	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	4,411$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9b04…c387backed Yes	1c	4,256$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+121.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	1c	3,909$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.58	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	3c	3,749$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112.53	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	3,504$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.48	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde9d…35f8backed Yes	7c	3,403$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.86	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+24.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3c77…05f5backed Yes	6c	3,308$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214.92	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+39.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	2c	3,300$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.8	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb1e4…0e38backed Yes	1c	3,183$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-5.5wins	-0.09per pick	26cpaid	-59.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdc4d…bfa0backed Yes	12c	3,131$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.96	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-4.0wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x15ef…acb1backed Yes	2c	3,010$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.63	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	3c	3,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc910…03f5backed Yes	1c	2,859$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	+26.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf2b…ceb4backed Yes	2c	2,658$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.69	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	13cpaid	-55.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	1c	2,637$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	2c	2,314$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	6c	2,080$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.79	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x52c7…25e4backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-64.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	2,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+90%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	3c	1,999$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.48	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	1,974$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	9c	1,899$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.35	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	20c	1,880$375 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$375.05	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	14c	1,855$262 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe98…9e5abacked Yes	7c	1,714$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	33	12.1%4 W · 29 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-15.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x444e…31c1backed Yes	4c	1,680$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.71	12	25%3 W · 9 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	1,630$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.3	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7b3…9573backed Yes	19c	1,600$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.99	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	21cpaid	-43.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	17c	1,510$256 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.6	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf3e5…092ebacked Yes	1c	1,506$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.26	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-47.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x824c…6874backed Yes	1c	1,500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-3.9wins	-0.09per pick	18cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	7c	1,470$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.68	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	1c	1,423$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.05	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	2c	1,400$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	6c	1,400$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	1,332$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.55	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	8c	1,270$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.9	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	10c	1,255$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.81	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5436…e29ebacked Yes	16c	1,246$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	18cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x80c0…f57ebacked Yes	6c	1,218$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.71	36	11.1%4 W · 32 L	-2.6wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-51.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x328b…a089backed Yes	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-2.9wins	-0.09per pick	17cpaid	-65.1%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	17c	1,142$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	19c	1,100$214 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$214	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x967d…ef6abacked Yes	2c	1,053$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	2c	1,038$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x66d1…d734backed Yes	20c	1,015$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	7	0%0 W · 7 L	-1.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	7c	1,000$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.47	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a12…9d86backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc25a…f814backed Yes	19c	1,000$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.94	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-1.1wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2616…8d3cbacked Yes	17c	1,000$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	30	40%12 W · 18 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	36cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked Yes	9c	999.99$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5858…fbbfbacked Yes	5c	999.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	20	20%4 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	20cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	5c	932.39$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7b51…5868backed Yes	4c	809.31$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	21c	793.84$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.05	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ff…5e00backed Yes	10c	775.28$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec2d…de68backed Yes	18c	750$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135	176	12.5%22 W · 154 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	16c	700$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	9c	676.93$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.37	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4268…6677backed Yes	2c	664.24$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.3wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	-65.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	17c	620$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.4	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d02…220abacked Yes	21c	614.29$129 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129	84	14.3%12 W · 72 L	-2.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-21.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	13c	600$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x80dc…7cf8backed Yes	11c	599.99$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.7	83	14.5%12 W · 71 L	-3.9wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc950…ad4ebacked Yes	17c	580$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.6	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	7c	579.02$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	8c	555$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.46	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	19c	526.32$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa724…06c4backed Yes	17c	505.56$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.05per pick	29cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa708…9abbbacked Yes	10c	501$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2f7…55dcbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-2.0wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-59.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9714…3014backed Yes	6c	499.98$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	21.4%3 W · 11 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	31cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	13c	450$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.2	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22eb…b6aabacked Yes	8c	430$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.11	8	25%2 W · 6 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	9c	428.84$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.73	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e00…adf9backed Yes	13c	421.36$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.95	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.7wins	-0.17per pick	37cpaid	-73.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event