Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6dd2559e1c420ab89dfbfcb031172bab95ba616d2249a89d647e811b62529745

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $801,437
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $377,092

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $801,437 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	2c	165,000$2,670 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,669.98	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6349…2a82backed Yes	0c	38,213$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.46	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+76%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	37,284$725 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$725.11	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	9c	23,343$2,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,112.42	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0228…a700backed Yes	1c	17,834$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e2…2953backed Yes	1c	15,400$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.28	221	19.9%44 W · 177 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	17cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	13,734$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.97	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	13,222$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$967.73	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes	0c	11,000$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x033e…34c6backed Yes	1c	10,898$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.92	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	11cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	10,004$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.08	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8d84…3e0fbacked Yes	5c	8,638$446 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.52	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.12per pick	13cpaid	+356%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	8,418$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.74	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	11c	8,372$930 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$929.68	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	4c	6,507$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.47	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	5,848$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.97	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	5,800$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.15	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	2c	5,285$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.04	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	5,092$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.08	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x405d…74b1backed Yes	1c	5,033$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	1c	5,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	5c	4,191$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	3,909$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.46	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	6c	3,683$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210.1	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	14c	3,564$500 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$500	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8423…b93dbacked Yes	1c	3,529$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes	11c	3,482$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	5c	3,413$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.42	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	2c	3,208$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.95	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	6c	3,121$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	8c	2,640$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$221.03	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a19…81b9backed Yes	14c	2,590$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	42	19%8 W · 34 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	12c	2,494$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290.15	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	10c	2,395$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.32	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes	2c	2,052$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0cdc…ae37backed Yes	1c	2,032$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	45	15.6%7 W · 38 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	1c	2,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.3	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	9c	2,000$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.39	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	7c	1,988$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.4	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	7c	1,873$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.16	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0cee…1832backed Yes	2c	1,836$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.75	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	18c	1,822$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	1,701$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.7	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	7c	1,694$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	6c	1,645$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.39	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x931d…dd7abacked Yes	13c	1,645$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.48	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	2c	1,619$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x65ac…8460backed Yes	2c	1,609$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.5	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	+117.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	11c	1,546$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	9c	1,535$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$134.36	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	10c	1,324$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.4	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	13c	1,320$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.24	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	8c	1,300$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.1	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes	12c	1,247$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd70…d270backed Yes	7c	1,242$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.96	751	22.2%167 W · 584 L	+15.0wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed Yes	1c	1,218$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.4	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes	13c	1,200$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-80%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x369d…a2d2backed Yes	12c	1,174$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.77	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8daa…89d6backed Yes	3c	1,172$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	2c	1,156$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.86	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	1,103$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.19	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	13c	1,088$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.8	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x11de…21d7backed Yes	12c	1,063$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.52	10	30%3 W · 7 L	-0.6wins	-0.06per pick	36cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	13c	1,050$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.5	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1ffb…7cbfbacked Yes	10c	1,021$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Yes	3c	1,011$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	94	20.2%19 W · 75 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	13c	1,000$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	4c	940.26$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.46	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	9c	900$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.96	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f73…a5e9backed Yes	14c	840.29$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	18	33.3%6 W · 12 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	40cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b04…c387backed Yes	2c	831.99$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.8wins	+0.12per pick	8cpaid	+121.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	11c	780$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.48	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7847…fc71backed Yes	13c	761.36$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	43	11.6%5 W · 38 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+54.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c58…b15cbacked Yes	14c	721.33$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	45	6.7%3 W · 42 L	-4.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	3c	664.49$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.99	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes	15c	663.77$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x652d…46b3backed Yes	2c	623$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.15	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+243.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes	12c	617.87$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.66	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	11c	594.34$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.64	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3986…01fdbacked Yes	10c	593.87$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.9	206	8.7%18 W · 188 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52e4…7d32backed Yes	15c	577.05$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.34	26	34.6%9 W · 17 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+26.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3520…f128backed Yes	15c	556.51$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.48	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-56.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3fd4…8cc6backed Yes	16c	511.33$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	14cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5422…f6b0backed Yes	10c	505.88$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2021…a8d5backed Yes	5c	500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	11c	499.99$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes	11c	451.47$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	450.79$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.75	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3b4…2a97backed Yes	9c	447.22$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.59	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x248e…7b12backed Yes	12c	421.69$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.34	207	17.4%36 W · 171 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	417.91$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7bf6…22a9backed Yes	10c	416.22$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.37	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ca…450abacked Yes	12c	413.99$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.02	312	17.3%54 W · 258 L	-5.7wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	6c	402$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.56	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	12c	400.86$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93d7…7423backed Yes	11c	400$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	40	10%4 W · 36 L	-4.4wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6de5…91c6backed Yes	8c	400$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	3c	399.88$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.6	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x28b3…7af3backed Yes	8c	393.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	25	8%2 W · 23 L	-2.4wins	-0.10per pick	18cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe8c1…b34bbacked Yes	13c	385.63$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.9wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-20.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event