Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf9289fba83e0262be211f72aeb19725929a14b6915d94067e98b6a17fc32656d

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $208,518
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,223

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $208,518 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	50,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf33d…9554backed Yes	2c	7,300$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.4	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf07…4b64backed Yes	2c	7,097$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x42c4…72f4backed Yes	1c	7,030$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.21	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	5,859$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.8	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	1c	4,629$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.13	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfca7…b177backed Yes	1c	3,807$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.26	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	6c	2,365$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	6c	1,736$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	3c	1,593$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.64	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76f6…bbacbacked Yes	2c	1,500$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-1.0wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	4c	1,032$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.48	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e09…fd64backed Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x73f6…1d82backed Yes	2c	999.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc98b…6430backed Yes	2c	928.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	32	25%8 W · 24 L	-0.7wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes	6c	895.1$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.07	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9e3…7aa8backed Yes	5c	832.89$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	5c	779.99$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.82	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9dff…49cebacked Yes	3c	719.99$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.4	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	6c	645.94$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.57	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	2c	623$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2c6…3947backed Yes	4c	533.91$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	478$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.86	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7371…cadebacked Yes	4c	449.98$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.75	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c99…0a54backed Yes	6c	409.3$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa0…1df7backed Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	32	9.4%3 W · 29 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes	5c	399.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.6	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…a92fbacked Yes	6c	310.97$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	6c	305.79$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.91	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	4c	299.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27e0…e236backed Yes	4c	274.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fd2…943bbacked Yes	7c	226.68$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	+2.0wins	+0.10per pick	14cpaid	+24.4%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1855…32bcbacked Yes	6c	206.53$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c04…7031backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.3wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x95fd…f9c7backed Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x32c8…f806backed Yes	5c	199.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.23per pick	23cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xedfd…bc3ebacked Yes	7c	153.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event