Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb21ea818dbb4e59594eec76d5d490d63195961d1fdc78ba840a9443f0bd87899

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $999,733
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $694,404

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $999,733 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 587 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	6c	45,104$2,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,509.09	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	16c	40,025$6,343 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,342.78	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	26c	24,806$6,548 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$6,547.72	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	7c	22,000$1,440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,440	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	0c	21,623$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.35	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	16c	20,656$3,341 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,341.49	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde92…5e10backed Yes	23c	20,000$4,600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,600	5	60%3 W · 2 L	+1.1wins	+0.21per pick	39cpaid	+86.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	39c	14,354$5,550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,549.67	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	4c	14,237$508 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$507.92	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	18c	13,684$2,465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,465.07	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x88d5…5ae1backed Yes	0c	11,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe842…27d6backed Yes	1c	10,504$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.14	532	5.3%28 W · 504 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-68.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	8,810$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$719.04	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce40…da67backed Yes	13c	8,549$1,141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,140.9	538	17.3%93 W · 445 L	-2.4wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-34.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	7c	8,508$599 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598.58	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes	14c	8,481$1,184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,184.04	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	6c	8,399$535 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$535.26	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No	72c	7,928$5,742 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,185.98	234	64.5%151 W · 83 L	+23.0wins	+0.10per pick	55cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xa3bc…543ebacked Yes	0c	7,024$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	7cpaid	+90%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	31c	7,000$2,185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,184.79	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	10c	6,500$664 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$663.81	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	13c	6,332$851 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$850.52	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	15c	5,951$884 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$883.98	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	7c	5,913$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.78	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	8c	5,392$448 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$447.97	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x24a5…b3bbbacked Yes	4c	5,018$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.06	86	16.3%14 W · 72 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	2c	5,000$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	23c	4,964$1,165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,164.95	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	68c	4,258$2,880 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,377.48	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xac88…9b35backed Yes	0c	4,207$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	66	6.1%4 W · 62 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	15c	4,022$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.35	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x663a…5c51backed Yes	33c	3,978$1,327 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,326.58	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-1.7wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	7c	3,798$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.29	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb73e…c66fbacked Yes	8c	3,742$290 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$290	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.2wins	+0.11per pick	17cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes	20c	3,584$727 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$726.53	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-62.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked Yes	14c	3,546$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.71	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7529…5cd7backed Yes	13c	3,375$422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$422.47	147	18.4%27 W · 120 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbda0…8992backed Yes	35c	3,256$1,142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,142.16	166	21.7%36 W · 130 L	-6.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b69…16d4backed Yes	28c	3,130$877 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$877.39	223	27.8%62 W · 161 L	-7.6wins	-0.03per pick	31cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	20c	3,001$594 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$594.27	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6aca…c734backed Yes	15c	3,000$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	63	22.2%14 W · 49 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	1c	3,000$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x931d…dd7abacked Yes	19c	2,978$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$563.16	26	30.8%8 W · 18 L	+0.5wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+20.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb863…a3a0backed Yes	27c	2,855$758 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$757.91	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	34cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b0c…1a42backed Yes	18c	2,699$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.78	155	20%31 W · 124 L	+6.0wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	-16.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e26…e972backed Yes	11c	2,669$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.1	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-4.6wins	-0.09per pick	23cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2791…b57cbacked Yes	4c	2,620$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.45	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.6wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	15c	2,604$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de0…0884backed Yes	28c	2,559$710 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$710	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-61.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb9b0…e2d7backed Yes	16c	2,554$404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$404.43	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.04per pick	36cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	16c	2,500$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.5	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd087…b390backed Yes	5c	2,452$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.92	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-2.0wins	-0.22per pick	56cpaid	-54.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x265f…a448backed Yes	29c	2,305$661 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$661.4	285	34.4%98 W · 187 L	+9.1wins	+0.03per pick	31cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	9c	2,274$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.43	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe071…2d1abacked Yes	36c	2,252$805 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$804.79	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5eb0…5012backed No	60c	2,195$1,324 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$870.88	28	25%7 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	-29.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	15c	2,119$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.1	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb07a…4d19backed Yes	17c	2,107$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	-1.5wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	17c	2,089$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$358.46	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb6b…943abacked Yes	23c	2,000$454 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.99	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	38cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33d4…c167backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	177	23.2%41 W · 136 L	+7.2wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8936…d010backed Yes	3c	2,000$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+2.2wins	+0.16per pick	20cpaid	+76%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	11c	1,997$221 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.8	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9991…9480backed Yes	24c	1,969$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.37	87	11.5%10 W · 77 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…7b1fbacked Yes	16c	1,945$315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.02	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.08per pick	33cpaid	-50.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f7…6c8abacked Yes	19c	1,851$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	18	11.1%2 W · 16 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	17cpaid	-38.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x303c…4487backed Yes	22c	1,792$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.59	47	27.7%13 W · 34 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+15.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	7c	1,788$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.31	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	9c	1,771$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154.52	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	19c	1,759$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$342.19	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	7c	1,745$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.33	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x967d…ef6abacked Yes	27c	1,673$450 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$450	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca8b…dbf5backed Yes	20c	1,668$335 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$335.13	181	16%29 W · 152 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec4e…aa07backed Yes	16c	1,655$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.53	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	19c	1,653$317 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.15	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0aec…74fcbacked Yes	37c	1,620$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	38	36.8%14 W · 24 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	43cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	16c	1,617$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe35d…f5d5backed Yes	26c	1,546$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$407.04	656	23.2%152 W · 504 L	+1.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	17c	1,532$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$265.7	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	36c	1,485$534 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$533.79	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	11c	1,480$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.96	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x392a…6bbabacked Yes	7c	1,420$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	93	24.7%23 W · 70 L	-1.8wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-38.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27c6…e143backed Yes	21c	1,398$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.08	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89b8…82b2backed Yes	18c	1,380$246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$245.72	82	14.6%12 W · 70 L	-4.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-53.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0234…62dabacked Yes	36c	1,377$499 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$499	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a54…7663backed Yes	2c	1,365$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.21	109	23.9%26 W · 83 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	1,350$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.85	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42ed…5ebabacked Yes	19c	1,335$248 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.29	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-57.7%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0f81…e93fbacked No	73c	1,326$962 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$364.43	36	66.7%24 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	73cpaid	-8.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf614…689abacked Yes	15c	1,308$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-37%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes	15c	1,300$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$195	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	21cpaid	-0.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5c0…a09dbacked Yes	19c	1,267$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.6	138	18.8%26 W · 112 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No	72c	1,252$905 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$347.39	169	69.2%117 W · 52 L	+17.6wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+13%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x72a1…b63dbacked Yes	9c	1,240$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.71	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	36cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fc3…e92ebacked Yes	38c	1,225$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.25	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	30c	1,187$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.58	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x729e…e23ebacked Yes	27c	1,185$319 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.54	238	31.1%74 W · 164 L	-4.9wins	-0.02per pick	33cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x578f…f112backed Yes	40c	1,182$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.69	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4978…956bbacked Yes	6c	1,169$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	479	8.6%41 W · 438 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	5c	1,157$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.8	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event