Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd593c6cfdd333f4429c0d4cdf69a723bde6b2d1c189db2544b0cd10a1ea1ccd

Rebuilt 6 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $578,156
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $278,575

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $578,156 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	243,454$1,337 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,336.82	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf979…0ebebacked Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6ac6…82a6backed Yes	0c	10,520$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.52	184	12%22 W · 162 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-67.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaeeb…645fbacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	5c	9,116$423 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$423.06	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	0c	8,594$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	6,747$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.21	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	4c	6,247$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	6,095$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	6c	5,798$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9792…9212backed Yes	4c	5,130$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.07	27	18.5%5 W · 22 L	+1.8wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+217.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5369…aac5backed Yes	2c	5,052$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101	17	23.5%4 W · 13 L	+1.1wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+72.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	1c	4,704$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	0c	4,100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.44	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	1c	3,973$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.82	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,639$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.95	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	2c	3,211$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb315…7dd8backed Yes	3c	3,056$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	2,600$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.64	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	2,310$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.79	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	4c	2,222$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.99	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb590…e409backed Yes	5c	2,014$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.69	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48f5…e40dbacked Yes	5c	2,000$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+103%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85bc…c23fbacked Yes	1c	1,948$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.3wins	+0.16per pick	9cpaid	+54.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	1,900$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.8	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	4c	1,500$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.51	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	1c	1,425$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,246$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes	4c	1,018$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.15	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	1,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.4	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	4c	885.7$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.99	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	2c	849.49$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.79	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes	5c	819.94$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.17	35	28.6%10 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	+10.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde72…1c1bbacked Yes	2c	800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	4c	700$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	2c	653.48$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	63	6.3%4 W · 59 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	4c	600$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.17	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ed…2366backed Yes	4c	581.4$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+149.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05cf…e6f8backed Yes	5c	517.04$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed Yes	4c	500$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	5c	499.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.5	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4841…a4b1backed Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x899d…4adcbacked Yes	4c	305.02$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	44	11.4%5 W · 39 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+42.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb8d7…3e75backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-7.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event