Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7a5216e9211fceb7de0ac9a23f620e95ba7d966e6ab3abd499a07787a6563462

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $573,388
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $315,999

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $573,388 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	0c	197,627$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.25	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	0c	19,505$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.01	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	0c	12,370$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.74	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf979…0ebebacked Yes	0c	12,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	0%0 W · 8 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	2c	11,847$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd68…3ca6backed Yes	0c	10,756$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	4	0%0 W · 4 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	7,760$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.28	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	7,265$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.25	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	4,900$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…e40dbacked Yes	2c	4,300$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.1	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+103%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	4c	4,177$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	4,076$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.22	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb590…e409backed Yes	3c	4,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,409$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.85	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	3,400$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.02	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed Yes	3c	2,000$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	2,000$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637b…5c6bbacked Yes	1c	1,200$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x560b…85d7backed Yes	1c	1,188$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.9wins	+0.23per pick	2cpaid	+1,061%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	2c	1,169$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70ed…2366backed Yes	2c	1,114$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+149.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes	2c	1,060$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.5	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	1c	1,047$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.17	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa8a0…f967backed Yes	3c	999.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+6.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b64…eaf4backed Yes	1c	999.98$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	8	0%0 W · 8 L	-0.6wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.4	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	2c	500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae00…f7b0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	62	43.5%27 W · 35 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	41cpaid	-16%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb107…2d5ebacked Yes	3c	415.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	356.88$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.47	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.62	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event