Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f12707da96cbfa2eeaaf64dc280d0984d73ac7f954df008f1b446dcde2e62d4

Rebuilt 5 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 18, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $625,852
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $256,000

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $625,852 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 72 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2ee0…f57bbacked Yes	1c	200,000$1,775 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,775	820	6.6%54 W · 766 L	+17.9wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6d…d787backed Yes	0c	25,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	18,549$824 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$823.54	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	15,472$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$111.62	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	12,055$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	10,943$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.97	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	0c	10,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	9,226$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.81	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x952c…be27backed Yes	3c	9,190$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.74	68	22.1%15 W · 53 L	+1.2wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	7,778$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.38	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,799$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.72	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	5,376$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	4,949$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.18	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc52c…6732backed Yes	6c	4,107$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	39	5.1%2 W · 37 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+8.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	3c	3,840$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	8c	3,832$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$318.38	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes	2c	3,820$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.02	83	12%10 W · 73 L	+2.6wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x51d6…3836backed Yes	1c	3,611$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.27	150	6%9 W · 141 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	+4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	1c	3,500$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.11	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes	4c	3,106$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.8	796	6.5%52 W · 744 L	+9.3wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+33.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3de…12a5backed Yes	6c	3,063$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.09	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	3c	2,781$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	2,539$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.08	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x56db…171cbacked Yes	2c	2,368$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	58	8.6%5 W · 53 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf77…1488backed Yes	1c	1,619$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.22	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-3.3wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	9c	1,602$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d3…9249backed Yes	4c	1,479$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	52	7.7%4 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	11cpaid	-60.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	6c	1,200$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.4	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	5c	1,200$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	1,200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2635…41aebacked Yes	5c	1,123$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.56	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.8wins	-0.08per pick	18cpaid	-80%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes	5c	1,121$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51	53	11.3%6 W · 47 L	-3.5wins	-0.07per pick	18cpaid	-29.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes	7c	1,104$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.73	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	7c	1,100$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.9	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadab…2f80backed Yes	6c	1,059$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.38	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3113…9943backed Yes	6c	1,014$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.89	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	11cpaid	+44.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f74…ffdabacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	18.2%4 W · 18 L	+1.8wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+436.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x471e…b99abacked Yes	6c	964$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.03	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde72…1c1bbacked Yes	1c	819.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+149.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0489…ddf7backed Yes	5c	809.98$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.85	199	27.6%55 W · 144 L	-3.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes	4c	739.88$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.49	996	19.8%197 W · 799 L	-15.9wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-43.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	3c	735.48$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.85	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xda4d…c8eebacked Yes	2c	678.47$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	143	8.4%12 W · 131 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70ed…2366backed Yes	8c	672.53$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	+149.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6ae…d19cbacked Yes	3c	670$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	32cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x637b…5c6bbacked Yes	5c	609.99$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-64.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f5…e40dbacked Yes	8c	583.91$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.92	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+103%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	6c	536$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57c8…3d9bbacked Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	19	0%0 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec05…b328backed Yes	7c	500$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	22cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8e40…5f04backed Yes	3c	499.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	31	29%9 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.04per pick	33cpaid	-47.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x369d…a2d2backed Yes	10c	478.27$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	19cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	2c	446.51$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4841…a4b1backed Yes	8c	400$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.8	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	20cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9973…bc03backed Yes	9c	400$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	51	13.7%7 W · 44 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-28.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	6c	400$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.6	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3f8…98e1backed Yes	3c	380$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.99	218	18.3%40 W · 178 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	3c	344.22$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.09	63	6.3%4 W · 59 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfb…da4abacked Yes	6c	323.59$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x05cf…e6f8backed Yes	8c	314.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	3c	303.18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67b6…568ebacked Yes	6c	300$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-2.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x34e5…7dd4backed Yes	10c	298.95$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	-25.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c60…b0ccbacked Yes	7c	268.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf760…bf84backed Yes	8c	259.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.9wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d5f…b380backed Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	430	27%116 W · 314 L	+7.1wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45a7…fdb3backed Yes	8c	194.76$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	9c	168$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.32	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3fa…af3abacked Yes	8c	153.13$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-3.6wins	-0.21per pick	39cpaid	-74%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x9be0…7491backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	21cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2ee…0af2backed Yes	8c	125$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	9cpaid	+516.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event