Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x94c4a3074bc9204a0ff91ff7abb562488ca2f456ed47d04b01796696c5e68e9a

Rebuilt 13 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Nov 14, 2025, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $234,422
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $125,619

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,422 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6e2d…6130backed Yes	19c	10,634$1,984 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,984.38	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe81b…ddc2backed Yes	21c	3,400$719 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.99	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe944…5c72backed Yes	20c	3,000$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$599.99	10	20%2 W · 8 L	-1.3wins	-0.13per pick	33cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4081…cfb0backed Yes	1c	2,153$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	134	7.5%10 W · 124 L	+2.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+27%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa270…4466backed Yes	15c	2,075$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.08	423	12.5%53 W · 370 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c32…377fbacked Yes	13c	2,000$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Yes	1c	1,900$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	177	9%16 W · 161 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-70.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe5d4…e7f7backed Yes	6c	1,783$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	20	25%5 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	32cpaid	-51%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	8c	1,500$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb73…8890backed Yes	5c	1,500$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b9d…68dbbacked Yes	13c	1,377$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.89	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.9wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-46.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62d7…7e85backed Yes	14c	1,311$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.52	89	7.9%7 W · 82 L	-4.4wins	-0.05per pick	13cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf07…4b64backed Yes	11c	1,295$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$146	16	12.5%2 W · 14 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8c6…5b8bbacked Yes	21c	1,224$253 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$253.2	112	21.4%24 W · 88 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x15c2…ebc0backed Yes	17c	1,047$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	212	11.8%25 W · 187 L	-8.2wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9279…ff7bbacked Yes	5c	1,000$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	73	16.4%12 W · 61 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes	21c	1,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6f3f…3dc7backed Yes	21c	999.99$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	18cpaid	-69.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdddc…9eb0backed Yes	19c	992.86$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.45	19	15.8%3 W · 16 L	-1.5wins	-0.08per pick	24cpaid	-1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	924.87$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.87	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa7de…ea41backed Yes	26c	764.55$196 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$196.21	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	44cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	22c	700.67$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$153	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4565…4509backed Yes	16c	625$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb637…4c42backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	43	32.6%14 W · 29 L	+3.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a96…7508backed Yes	5c	600$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	41	14.6%6 W · 35 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-63%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc8b…a92fbacked Yes	27c	554.37$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$150	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	+17.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	9c	550.65$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.08	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	518.03$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.47	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x098c…e4e1backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	98	16.3%16 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-6.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6261…e04dbacked Yes	10c	499.96$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes	8c	493.57$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.95	80	6.3%5 W · 75 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76d2…153abacked Yes	22c	460$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.2	62	4.8%3 W · 59 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	+307.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1c99…0a54backed Yes	23c	458.32$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-84.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x70be…2c90backed Yes	22c	454.55$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	40	30%12 W · 28 L	+0.5wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+28.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a33…28e8backed Yes	21c	450$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.5	39	15.4%6 W · 33 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed Yes	17c	442.48$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.22	19	31.6%6 W · 13 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-16.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e05…0d64backed Yes	16c	437.5$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	17cpaid	-88.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	16c	436.19$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.73	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf2c6…0272backed Yes	16c	422.38$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.6	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	32cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0744…b4cbbacked Yes	6c	416.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	73	13.7%10 W · 63 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-22%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c16…dd84backed Yes	24c	416.67$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	29cpaid	-39.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dff…49cebacked Yes	13c	401.95$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.43	15	0%0 W · 15 L	-1.7wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb166…7ba1backed Yes	16c	400$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-62.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73f6…1d82backed Yes	3c	399.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa789…aaefbacked Yes	11c	391.67$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac83…eaaabacked Yes	10c	375.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.95	296	8.1%24 W · 272 L	+6.3wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+52.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68c9…4c60backed Yes	20c	360.4$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.44	87	42.5%37 W · 50 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	43cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0f6…451cbacked No	78c	350$273 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$77	158	12%19 W · 139 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33d…9554backed Yes	6c	350$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad0a…7898backed Yes	14c	350$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	70	18.6%13 W · 57 L	+5.7wins	+0.08per pick	10cpaid	+104.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4f0e…c60cbacked Yes	6c	333.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	6.7%1 W · 14 L	-1.3wins	-0.09per pick	16cpaid	-60.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4839…6d90backed Yes	15c	330$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	24cpaid	-74.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a1…838fbacked Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	28	7.1%2 W · 26 L	-1.6wins	-0.06per pick	13cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cc6…8e7bbacked Yes	12c	300$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	37	16.2%6 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-26.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes	5c	300$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+13.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6123…2df3backed Yes	7c	285.71$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a54…f7f9backed Yes	15c	260.25$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	31	19.4%6 W · 25 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+37.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xf2ab…97a4backed Yes	23c	255.08$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.67	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-3.5wins	-0.15per pick	32cpaid	-48.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb5e3…49fabacked Yes	16c	246.71$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.34	67	14.9%10 W · 57 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+95.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes	13c	212.97$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.95	185	31.4%58 W · 127 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	35cpaid	-36%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf4fd…351fbacked Yes	6c	210.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	14	28.6%4 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.11per pick	18cpaid	+43.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d28…ad63backed Yes	10c	202.17$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-18%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc71b…e265backed Yes	12c	200$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	74	45.9%34 W · 40 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d8d…6556backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.5wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No	75c	200$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50	19	78.9%15 W · 4 L	+1.5wins	+0.08per pick	71cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36f4…7518backed Yes	25c	200$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	69	30.4%21 W · 48 L	-3.1wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x06ee…d693backed Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	19cpaid	+23.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x533f…766bbacked Yes	5c	200$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	+1.0wins	+0.16per pick	17cpaid	+113.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b90…258ebacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.91	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ef5…453bbacked Yes	9c	199.99$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05c2…2db2backed Yes	10c	193.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.4wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf67c…c5b2backed Yes	21c	190.48$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	29cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda15…2762backed Yes	24c	188.33$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	53	15.1%8 W · 45 L	-2.2wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xedfd…bc3ebacked Yes	16c	187.5$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-2.2wins	-0.11per pick	21cpaid	-61.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1264…31e5backed Yes	16c	184.78$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	88	26.1%23 W · 65 L	-6.3wins	-0.07per pick	33cpaid	-47.7%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x61c7…82cebacked Yes	15c	170$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	33	15.2%5 W · 28 L	-1.7wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-32.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	18c	160$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8496…00b7backed Yes	15c	153.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x26cc…5307backed Yes	15c	150$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	33	9.1%3 W · 30 L	-2.6wins	-0.08per pick	17cpaid	-44%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No	80c	149.97$120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.2	108	38.9%42 W · 66 L	-4.2wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-11%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x213e…98b7backed Yes	20c	148.74$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.09per pick	20cpaid	-56.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3e4…8669backed Yes	18c	145.63$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.21	126	16.7%21 W · 105 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7a41…2562backed Yes	12c	137.79$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a22…8acebacked Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	38cpaid	-47.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2c6…3947backed Yes	15c	133.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.9wins	-0.21per pick	21cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xcd0d…dbb9backed Yes	19c	129.9$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	23	17.4%4 W · 19 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-19.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xed3f…ab1cbacked Yes	23c	127.09$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.23	40	27.5%11 W · 29 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	30cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1855…32bcbacked Yes	19c	122.63$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x347b…a316backed Yes	11c	119.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-2.3wins	-0.18per pick	26cpaid	-58.3%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4c5b…847ebacked Yes	17c	118.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	54	24.1%13 W · 41 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6e75…50d7backed Yes	17c	117.65$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x95fd…f9c7backed Yes	18c	111.11$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.4wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-71.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2785…42a6backed Yes	13c	107.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.95	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0905…99adbacked Yes	10c	105$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.15	104	34.6%36 W · 68 L	-3.5wins	-0.03per pick	38cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc622…8f86backed Yes	13c	100$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	50	24%12 W · 38 L	-1.8wins	-0.04per pick	28cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0684…d593backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	35	11.4%4 W · 31 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd707…d83dbacked Yes	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	-1.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x89ff…b941backed No	79c	100$79 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21	4	50%2 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb62e…543bbacked Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	12	33.3%4 W · 8 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-23.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event