TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xadb7…90b5

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
83
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
11

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.06 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick35cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$390Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$390.05
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.8
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$47
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$731Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$731.4
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.32
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST-100%-$12.74
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from December 12 to December 19, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 19, 2025, EST+37.6%+$27.3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 27, 2025, EST-100%-$10.5
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 21 to November 28, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$14.8
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST+175.1%+$63.65
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from November 14 to November 21, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 21, 2025, EST-100%-$12.5
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST-100%-$22.5
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 18, 2025, EST+383.1%+$39.65
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$195.4
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 11 to November 18, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 14, 2025, EST-100%-$75.22
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 7 to November 14, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 13, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+257.1%+$28.8
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from November 4 to November 11, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 11, 2025, EST+46.2%+$32.43
All 19 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT1752.9%9 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+1.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$78
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$970Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$970.46
Will Europe (UEFA) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$192Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$108
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+434.8%+$551.21
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.11
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$222Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$222.38
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 12, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$8.04
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$40.68
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.56
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.98
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.05
Mexico vs. England: Team to Advancebacked England · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$29
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$7.8
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.8
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+56.3%+$7.2
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$9.6
Will France win on 2026-06-16?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
All 17 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jun 17, 2026, EDT922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.15per pick37cpaid-63.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.45
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 16?backed Up · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$260Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$260.1
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 22?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$504Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$446.5
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 18?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$168Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.52
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 15?backed Down · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.4
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$959Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$391.5
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$76Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.66
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$336Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$336
All 9 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.6wins-0.33per pick53cpaid-75%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-15.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Texas Tech Red Raiders · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$619Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$619.32
Vanderbilt Commodores vs. Nebraska Cornhuskersbacked Vanderbilt Commodores · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$668Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$668.04
Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida Gatorsbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$216Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$216
Hofstra Pride vs. Alabama Crimson Tidebacked Hofstra Pride · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.08
All 4 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 2, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+23.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in May?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$1,095Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+37%+$405.08
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$165Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$165
All 2 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

South American Leagues Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
South American Leagues — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in South American Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Racing Club vs. Caracas FC end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$67Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$33
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group Abacked Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$932Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$418.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 27, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Hannah Spencer – Green Party finish third in the Gorton and Denton by-election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$16.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Claude 4.7 released by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
All 1 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 13, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
La Liga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Athletic Club end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Nov 12, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 12, 2025, EST-100%-$11.4
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.