TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Prairie View A&M Panthers vs. Florida Gators

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Florida Gatorsof Prairie View A&M Panthers, Florida Gators
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,069,543

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,069,543 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 96 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xaa59…75ecbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c228,816$4,349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,349.0514346.9%67 W · 76 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a7e…1cc7backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c192,653$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.324628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick33cpaid-44.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c156,261$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,500.1890645.4%411 W · 495 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c99,970$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.521957.9%11 W · 8 L+2.4wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+17.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a08…64a7backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c84,395$844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$843.951040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c83,793$838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$837.934548.9%22 W · 23 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c74,586$652 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.132,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ecd…0787backed Prairie View A&M Panthers0c69,141$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.422213.6%3 W · 19 L-4.1wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-65.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa49b…4c40backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c50,000$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8008644.2%38 W · 48 L+0.4wins0.00per pick44cpaid-26.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bff…ffbebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers0c40,071$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.475143.1%22 W · 29 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c39,986$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.8614930.2%45 W · 104 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a69…d2f7backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c33,063$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.5681528.8%235 W · 580 L-19.9wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7fe…8101backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c27,475$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.5510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8c88…d9b3backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c25,680$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.1220%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc6ae…afe9backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c24,991$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.919711.3%11 W · 86 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick15cpaid-41.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers0c23,845$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.483993.3%13 W · 386 L-21.0wins-0.05per pick9cpaid-89.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c23,797$229 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.11,15248.9%563 W · 589 L+3.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2ba…b283backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c23,506$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.222544%11 W · 14 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfee5…a679backed Prairie View A&M Panthers3c23,346$584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$584.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c3a…020bbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c20,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2003745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15fe…27d2backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c17,475$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.5840%0 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4aac…ced2backed Prairie View A&M Panthers0c17,444$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc722…1334backed Prairie View A&M Panthers0c15,327$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.64175.9%1 W · 16 L-3.0wins-0.18per pick24cpaid-87.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa61e…0abdbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c15,000$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16540%0 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b62…daccbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c13,245$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.921520%3 W · 12 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick33cpaid-54%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9367…f6bebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c12,856$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.930%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb74…997cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c11,850$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.341838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-20.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x260c…7130backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c11,615$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.151915.8%3 W · 16 L-2.1wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-51.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0915…d08abacked Prairie View A&M Panthers0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112951.7%15 W · 14 L+1.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x985f…7a5bbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c10,997$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.979051.1%46 W · 44 L+6.4wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x50cb…c79abacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c10,360$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.961921.1%4 W · 15 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick31cpaid-69.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c10,000$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1306643.9%29 W · 37 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick40cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x18bb…e5cdbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c9,999$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.992425%6 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-20%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x25c2…cd02backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c9,997$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.971040%4 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-26.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x646b…5112backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c9,991$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.91382.6%1 W · 37 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-83.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c9,087$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.9674152.6%390 W · 351 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadb7…90b5backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c9,000$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21640%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c8,346$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.5738837.6%146 W · 242 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+7.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf827…7992backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c8,252$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.271723.5%4 W · 13 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick31cpaid-26.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe9cd…9a4cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c7,000$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1121050%5 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-31.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c5,555$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.442,68748.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L+4.8wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2a2…23a0backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c5,254$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.968744.8%39 W · 48 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-21.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf797…0bf2backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c5,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd9c…7133backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c4,999$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.996225.8%16 W · 46 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-26.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x66a1…80d9backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c4,999$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.98130%0 W · 13 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7ca…a175backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c4,998$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9810543.8%46 W · 59 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x46ff…6672backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c4,998$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.981811.1%2 W · 16 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x553e…df91backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c4,716$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.191040%4 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44d…935cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c4,498$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.485843.1%25 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+16.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9797…c193backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c4,400$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.81338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick42cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44f7…266fbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers0c4,342$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.41270%0 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d45…97f4backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c4,000$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$721833.3%6 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick42cpaid-44.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce7c…17cfbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c3,833$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.9920%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c3,823$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.595541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x17bf…5a53backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c3,600$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.67812.8%10 W · 68 L-17.2wins-0.22per pick35cpaid-78.6%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x8188…0667backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c3,500$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.51811.1%2 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick16cpaid-60.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6594…9a61backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c3,400$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.640%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x11bf…770dbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c3,332$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.975024%12 W · 38 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-42.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4124…8af2backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c3,199$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.992810.7%3 W · 25 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-65.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad8b…3d0cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,777$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick31cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Prairie View A&M Panthers2c2,772$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.22425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick30cpaid-68.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3c…e044backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,770$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.992123.8%5 W · 16 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid-25.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca5b…ec6fbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,635$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.9910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdf0…1139backed Prairie View A&M Panthers0c2,550$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid-47.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef02…5ebdbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20140%0 W · 14 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x014c…820cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,499$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99520%1 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick10cpaid-37.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2842…8052backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,499$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991520%3 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.17per pick37cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbee0…aa9fbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,470$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.687643.4%33 W · 43 L-0.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6256…584dbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,454$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f96…87f3backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,408$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.991526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd817…ac33backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,404$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.428444%37 W · 47 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1509…6be7backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,182$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.99273.7%1 W · 26 L-8.5wins-0.31per pick35cpaid-94.5%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0xe30e…4eedbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,138$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.028518.8%16 W · 69 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-16.6%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x9f88…2a93backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,000$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…3501backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c2,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201457.1%8 W · 6 L+2.6wins+0.19per pick39cpaid+26.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x08c1…7fbebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,999$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1615240.1%61 W · 91 L-8.6wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f08…ed44backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9946446.8%217 W · 247 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd033…668cbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.993218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-47.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c16…0272backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.995117.6%9 W · 42 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick24cpaid-54.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,999$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9942934.3%147 W · 282 L+21.3wins+0.05per pick29cpaid+8.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5cee…dfadbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,908$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.991926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa178…e4bdbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,499$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99156.7%1 W · 14 L-2.3wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-79.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x0c06…8f41backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,499$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.491681.3%13 W · 3 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick70cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,471$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8113842.8%59 W · 79 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,442$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.753,38049.5%1,673 W · 1,707 L+30.4wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc01…b6b0backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,362$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.2610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51fd…4272backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,300$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2916721%35 W · 132 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick25cpaid-39.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1214…ebecbacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,101$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0160%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x480e…90c7backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,089$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.89812.5%1 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick31cpaid-76%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ae4…273ebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,010$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.150%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9295…6ff9backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,010$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1140%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf829…5ee1backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,009$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-16.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe74…a70ebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202853.6%15 W · 13 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x44fc…9728backed Prairie View A&M Panthers3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-36.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd642…5877backed Prairie View A&M Panthers1c1,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd8…858ebacked Prairie View A&M Panthers1c999.62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11619.8%6 W · 55 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-47.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.