TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x9295…6ff9

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
65
Categories scored
14
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Middle East, grading 62 out of 100 (+0.11 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 62 out of 100; worst Commodities at 43.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 6, 2026, EDT1861.1%11 W · 7 L+2.2wins+0.12per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$112.13
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$364Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT+67.6%+$246
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.02
Will Carlos Álvarez win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$248Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$247.75
Will Jorge Nieto win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$183.44
Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.9
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+77.3%+$19.33
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$125Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+43.3%+$54.08
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+50.3%+$29.31
Will Jorge Nieto finish in third place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$47.14
Will Ricardo Belmont finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$161Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$160.92
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+43.9%+$24.4
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$127Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+59%+$75.04
Will United Left (BSP) win at least one seat in the 2026 Bulgarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+58.6%+$16.99
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+46.2%+$5.45
Will the Freedom Movement (GS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$171Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+41.5%+$71.11
Will Emmanuel Grégoire win the Paris mayor election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+35.6%+$10.91
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT+71.8%+$14.36
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1573.3%11 W · 4 L+4.4wins+0.29per pick44cpaid+79.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
Middle East — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$133.27
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$4.2
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+280.5%+$32.46
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$8.8
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+402.2%+$61.82
US forces enter Iran by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.86
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT+92.3%+$18.83
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+162.2%+$87.93
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+282.2%+$126.83
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT+49.5%+$24.74
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will another country strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$31Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+126.8%+$38.8
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT+33.4%+$6.67
All 15 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT1216.7%2 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-77.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Commodities — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.75
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.25
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$80
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $180 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.9
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$179Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$179.04
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.43
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$167.2
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$265Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$78.46
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 28, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$4.5
All 12 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.30per pick55cpaid-65.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
MLB — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 24, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Senators vs. Rangersbacked Senators · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$8.22
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$23.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.20per pick80cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Knicks vs. Nuggetsbacked Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+25%+$2.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Mar 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Inflation" 50+ times during March press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.02
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.