TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,331,927
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,721,948

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,331,927 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 3,339 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8718…d6ddbacked Yes4c353,773$14,411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,410.77837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick15cpaid+42.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbd0…2e83backed Yes41c162,507$66,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66,873.75825%2 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick19cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe778…6da6backed Yes2c151,625$2,427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,426.820%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3cae…9060backed Yes4c72,428$2,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,549.1220%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes1c70,496$385 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$385.094440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed No67c63,777$42,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,087.46785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+130.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked No68c60,613$41,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,340.394334.9%15 W · 28 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick24cpaid+13.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed Yes18c57,913$10,336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,335.921010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-83.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x42d1…d745backed Yes40c57,233$22,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,638.6460%0 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f6e…bd69backed Yes1c56,136$622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$621.8810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes37c53,168$19,764 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,764.382433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No78c49,921$38,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,139.6713748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682d…31abbacked Yes40c49,749$19,982 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,982.315628.6%16 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-38.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x88e3…384ebacked Yes18c44,873$8,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,181.811526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No68c44,368$30,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,206.110646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf360…4d73backed Yes12c44,211$5,419 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,419333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e4a…5c76backed Yes34c42,416$14,565 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,565.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a8a…7699backed No63c42,000$26,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,514.97366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x085f…3b37backed Yes14c40,218$5,489 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,489.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked Yes19c39,111$7,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,4557027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes19c37,172$7,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,013.766756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No72c34,984$25,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,684.8688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No69c33,732$23,381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,350.1435258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842c…58a8backed Yes17c30,826$5,205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,205.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8372…5223backed Yes22c30,571$6,629 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,629.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a5d…460fbacked Yes36c29,024$10,521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,521.47333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+158.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x565a…2c1fbacked Yes12c28,560$3,286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,285.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2e5…b3a5backed Yes22c27,144$6,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,006.81875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+81%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x327b…ffb5backed Yes10c26,383$2,630 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,629.9450%0 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes8c24,919$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,921.58128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c37…f507backed Yes25c24,384$6,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,046.4940%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57d8…5781backed Yes13c24,287$3,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,137.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes1c23,700$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.65892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23d8…0288backed No74c22,778$16,746 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,031.864161%25 W · 16 L+8.3wins+0.20per pick41cpaid+51.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x59d6…62c8backed Yes25c22,381$5,608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,608.171233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No69c21,005$14,515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,490.27933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be8…3c35backed Yes22c20,959$4,591 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,59120%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No70c20,908$14,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,251.7512249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51c0…141abacked Yes19c20,721$3,935 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,934.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29b8…489bbacked Yes8c20,536$1,568 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,567.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc9d0…2ed4backed Yes7c19,710$1,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,336.7230%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9f9…3383backed Yes21c19,503$4,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,020333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe47e…ecbebacked Yes25c19,207$4,734 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,733.8110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…17aebacked Yes30c19,124$5,752 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,751.556219.4%12 W · 50 L+3.8wins+0.06per pick13cpaid-17.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa625…437abacked Yes14c19,112$2,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,731.1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No72c19,088$13,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,431.8352850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2fe5…6276backed Yes11c18,563$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,958.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e09…9234backed Yes12c18,258$2,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,149.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8505…8f36backed Yes14c17,597$2,455 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,454.8730%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37e3…551fbacked Yes22c17,570$3,808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,808.2720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5f1…364bbacked Yes14c17,512$2,435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,434.6840%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x11ba…c6bdbacked Yes30c17,503$5,195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,195.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6c88…8570backed Yes31c16,979$5,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,325.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc1…95f3backed Yes34c16,956$5,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,804.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf72c…0fe6backed Yes1c16,714$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23420%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43b2…72ffbacked Yes26c16,365$4,292 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,291.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5beb…a294backed Yes2c16,003$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.4910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes9c16,000$1,412 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,411.764348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes15c15,977$2,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,331.6837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x122c…b873backed Yes14c14,981$2,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,160.9812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-51%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba5f…2753backed Yes13c14,836$1,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,929.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffd…1a4cbacked Yes32c14,808$4,711 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,710.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0c…ca5abacked Yes32c14,764$4,790 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,790.0520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa3e0…1fe5backed Yes14c14,226$1,922 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,922.3720%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11c6…1852backed Yes3c14,067$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$363.7210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc99e…84a3backed Yes31c14,045$4,394 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,394.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d29…ace1backed Yes20c13,779$2,744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,744.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x54bc…19fdbacked Yes22c13,530$3,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,028.610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf951…9585backed Yes1c13,357$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$92.2510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes1c13,072$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3210331.1%32 W · 71 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-32.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bcd…358bbacked Yes16c12,545$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd102…7f38backed Yes18c12,543$2,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.9410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x867b…f2edbacked Yes22c12,403$2,713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,712.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes2c12,400$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.194928.6%14 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed No55c12,390$6,770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,620.43941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x6268…6031backed Yes1c12,364$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.884511.1%5 W · 40 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick8cpaid-20.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4d8…2315backed Yes31c12,301$3,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,842.3510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x709d…5501backed Yes44c12,270$5,366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,366.26633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-29%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8be1…f05dbacked Yes3c12,243$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.4720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9d5…c382backed Yes18c12,231$2,213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,212.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd7db…764bbacked Yes2c12,189$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7840%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x692b…14e3backed Yes5c12,030$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$594.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa071…6250backed Yes13c11,837$1,580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,580.3910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes36c11,646$4,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,234.8925337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa67e…3565backed Yes33c11,594$3,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,824.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40cf…d21dbacked Yes20c11,215$2,255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,254.6315932.7%52 W · 107 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick33cpaid+102.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x639d…4777backed No60c11,143$6,634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,508.51560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+409.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd84b…9587backed Yes2c10,825$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.5810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…6a20backed Yes34c10,716$3,596 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,596.110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4b3…be24backed Yes16c10,617$1,673 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,67310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x83f2…c203backed Yes19c10,554$2,038 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,037.9130%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1be9…47e1backed Yes42c10,493$4,406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,406.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+47.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x96e6…d04abacked Yes16c10,470$1,675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,675.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd47…63cebacked Yes33c10,336$3,449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,449.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1229…df38backed Yes37c10,173$3,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,722.851421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x22a7…5834backed Yes39c10,002$3,929 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,929.110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e60…ae42backed Yes28c9,842$2,798 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,798.421414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-79.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6d31…f712backed Yes10c9,820$1,008 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,008.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c3e…e3c3backed Yes10c9,653$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,00010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f88…1d4dbacked Yes38c9,603$3,684 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,683.981428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.