World Politics · resolved market
Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x849a3e762977a9ad6b8e5f449ac7c8abb2756409a1b55759e00262e072bd81a7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,024,889
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $390,491
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,024,889 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdc4…2ec5backed Yes | 0c | 637,098$637 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa586…2b3bbacked Yes | 0c | 603,852$604 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$603.85 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa396…baa5backed Yes | 0c | 329,031$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.03 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38a2…f1cebacked Yes | 0c | 328,613$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…5063backed Yes | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 44,307$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.85 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e39…8cbfbacked Yes | 0c | 43,073$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.07 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 42,511$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.51 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 38,997$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.33 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…86d9backed Yes | 0c | 33,362$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed68…b870backed Yes | 0c | 31,345$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd474…521dbacked Yes | 0c | 29,160$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 0c | 27,413$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…0451backed Yes | 0c | 24,999$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 24,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 24,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked Yes | 0c | 23,371$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 30cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4505…1cf0backed Yes | 0c | 12,743$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x275d…6b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…81a1backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 10,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe048…fd3ebacked Yes | 1c | 9,497$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -48.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 8,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 0c | 8,414$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.93 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecf…5563backed Yes | 1c | 7,914$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf71b…210cbacked Yes | 0c | 6,548$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed Yes | 0c | 6,012$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7b…f717backed Yes | 0c | 5,300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 5,032$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.63 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce8…21c7backed Yes | 1c | 4,948$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc966…c2d0backed Yes | 1c | 3,814$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…36fbbacked Yes | 1c | 3,606$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -77.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 3,101$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…c1c4backed Yes | 1c | 2,779$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.32 | 47 | 23.4%11 W · 36 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,713$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.82 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 19cpaid | -64%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 1c | 2,540$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…a307backed Yes | 19c | 2,473$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470.19 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 2,337$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.61 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f2…f1c9backed Yes | 1c | 2,254$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 2,116$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 8cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd90…a2dabacked Yes | 3c | 2,028$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6961…8a80backed Yes | 1c | 1,707$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c2…55c3backed Yes | 26c | 1,705$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$444.89 | 24 | 12.5%3 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 10c | 1,065$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.19 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 7c | 1,028$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.02 | 182 | 16.5%30 W · 152 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeee1…5a04backed Yes | 2c | 1,013$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3255…c6c7backed Yes | 1c | 813.28$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bc8…19d4backed Yes | 5c | 799.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 21cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 16c | 587.75$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4b…cac2backed Yes | 9c | 551.39$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.39 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -28%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 5c | 506.3$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccac…ab7dbacked No | 76c | 472.25$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed Yes | 16c | 450$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 103 | 44.7%46 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 17c | 334.74$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.53 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3577…c5edbacked No | 73c | 266.9$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.06 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d43…bec0backed Yes | 6c | 253.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.33per pick | 45cpaid | -73.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffd…5f97backed Yes | 15c | 94.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 32 | 9.4%3 W · 29 L | -8.0wins | -0.25per pick | 34cpaid | -79.9%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x50e6…e838backed Yes | 17c | 83.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d6…62c8backed No | 76c | 66.22$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56e3…521cbacked Yes | 22c | 55.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9d…c719backed No | 79c | 55.33$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.62 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.41per pick | 45cpaid | +217.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eaf…1efdbacked Yes | 31c | 47.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4427…9016backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 314 | 43.9%138 W · 176 L | -12.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…d1b6backed No | 73c | 27.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.42 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +84.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f3…b389backed No | 73c | 17.81$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.