TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$769,363
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$279,533

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $769,363 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xccc1…889dbacked Yes0c100,000$100 inLost-$100130%0 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x275d…6b0cbacked Yes0c50,000$50 inLost-$5040%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c40,722$61 inLost-$61.443614.4%16 W · 345 L-0.4wins0.00per pick5cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc53…9754backed Yes0c25,500$33 inLost-$33583.4%2 W · 56 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc524…75a2backed Yes0c25,000$25 inLost-$2570%0 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3659…0451backed Yes0c24,999$25 inLost-$25360%0 W · 36 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad91…7844backed Yes0c18,000$18 inLost-$1830%0 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc4…7c1dbacked Yes0c17,652$35 inLost-$35.3837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.3wins+0.16per pick21cpaid+77.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe784…16a5backed Yes0c16,000$16 inLost-$1620%0 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes0c14,000$14 inLost-$14460%0 W · 46 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1428…e173backed Yes0c13,886$14 inLost-$13.8940%0 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes0c12,666$13 inLost-$12.671100%0 W · 110 L-0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c11,000$22 inLost-$224440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x81dc…fb27backed Yes0c9,858$30 inLost-$29.5720%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23fa…7562backed Yes0c9,858$30 inLost-$29.57333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6443…f329backed Yes0c9,858$39 inLost-$39.43250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c6,396$17 inLost-$17.131664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x925c…fb6fbacked Yes0c6,141$25 inLost-$24.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x920d…ad02backed Yes0c6,141$18 inLost-$18.4210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x02ff…d26bbacked Yes0c6,141$25 inLost-$24.5610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0da…a00fbacked Yes0c5,545$17 inLost-$16.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c5,239$19 inLost-$19.391,43110.1%145 W · 1,286 L-4.9wins0.00per pick10cpaid-12.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd039…fbb3backed Yes0c4,312$13 inLost-$12.94333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-48.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce71…83bcbacked Yes1c3,999$46 inLost-$45.642528%7 W · 18 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-45.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ee…c71fbacked Yes0c3,648$15 inLost-$14.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca73…1387backed Yes0c3,263$13 inLost-$13.0520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd684…b2e1backed Yes0c2,878$12 inLost-$11.5110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xffc5…aca4backed Yes0c2,838$11 inLost-$11.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbf7e…82e6backed Yes0c2,552$10 inLost-$10.2110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.