World Politics · resolved market
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x202af343a370924358b0397efd5b812affec245fd60a9f7bdcadc914b6179a3d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,787,258
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,106,391
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,787,258 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 150,447$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.45 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 115,908$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.91 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 109,273$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 65,170$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.17 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 55,162$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.16 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…0451backed Yes | 0c | 45,378$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.38 | 36 | 0%0 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…4f48backed Yes | 0c | 33,715$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ad…8ec9backed Yes | 0c | 25,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -68.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 22,261$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e01…17b3backed Yes | 0c | 21,616$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed Yes | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 17,550$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x530c…529fbacked Yes | 0c | 15,625$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 14,999$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…c6a7backed Yes | 0c | 13,333$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0adc…c214backed Yes | 0c | 12,276$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed Yes | 0c | 12,050$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 2cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed88…0dfdbacked Yes | 0c | 10,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 37 | 2.7%1 W · 36 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 1cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…009fbacked Yes | 0c | 7,855$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe49a…5222backed Yes | 0c | 7,787$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…a108backed Yes | 0c | 7,698$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d87…9fc1backed Yes | 0c | 7,518$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad2d…0a11backed Yes | 0c | 7,518$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8d…51c8backed Yes | 0c | 7,333$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb27d…8696backed Yes | 0c | 7,255$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9629…b148backed Yes | 0c | 6,895$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf169…2005backed Yes | 0c | 6,500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 6,230$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa918…7a52backed Yes | 0c | 4,692$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35c1…70a3backed Yes | 0c | 4,692$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…2202backed Yes | 0c | 4,692$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…7185backed Yes | 0c | 4,692$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3cb…1bf4backed Yes | 0c | 4,672$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 30cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8568…af50backed Yes | 0c | 4,672$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfad8…0c9dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,672$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8730…d68bbacked Yes | 0c | 4,672$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f7…d174backed Yes | 0c | 4,632$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe17a…dbc8backed Yes | 0c | 4,341$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2bb…b50abacked Yes | 0c | 4,341$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xab44…a5b9backed Yes | 0c | 4,270$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f5…7465backed Yes | 0c | 3,350$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x296b…2cf2backed Yes | 1c | 3,122$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.3 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +64.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 0c | 2,974$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1a3…5870backed Yes | 0c | 2,821$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 0c | 2,472$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x050f…6b27backed Yes | 2c | 2,381$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.9 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -75.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6993…c79abacked Yes | 1c | 2,245$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8646…ed78backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | -81.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0c…a307backed Yes | 1c | 1,584$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 647.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.