TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,883,971
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$7,715,973

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,883,971 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 2,541 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x16c1…4635backed No2c279,628$4,812 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,811.7610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4207…b81bbacked No16c216,114$35,305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,304.561546.7%7 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick38cpaid+38.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xecaa…77a9backed Yes73c121,634$88,262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33,372.111853.4%63 W · 55 L-2.9wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-9.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ced…5452backed Yes71c78,621$55,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,086.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+41.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes72c77,420$56,052 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,368.2854934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x302a…c0efbacked No2c67,456$1,183 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,183.3620%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc7c…1d18backed No20c59,933$11,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,924.971010%1 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.12per pick22cpaid-83.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x59d6…62c8backed Yes34c52,224$17,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34,725.511233.3%4 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick21cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0d6…7475backed No22c49,794$10,965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,964.6413748.2%66 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-15.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No32c44,302$14,061 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,061.1810646.2%49 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked No1c43,818$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$271.184440.7%3 W · 441 L-0.7wins0.00per pick1cpaid-87.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2f1a…bfa2backed Yes32c35,136$11,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23,736.071833.3%6 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick25cpaid+94.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8cc1…95f3backed No14c34,697$4,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,851.6320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe9fe…3da3backed Yes59c32,948$19,358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,590.022100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+65.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No33c32,412$10,575 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,574.5535258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x639d…4777backed Yes33c32,367$10,792 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,574.31560%3 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.34per pick26cpaid+409.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe778…6da6backed No1c31,702$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.9120%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x296b…2cf2backed Yes29c31,399$8,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,434.733348.5%16 W · 17 L+3.5wins+0.11per pick38cpaid+64.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x300b…f636backed No20c30,000$5,953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,953425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-51%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37ab…b7a8backed No15c29,505$4,562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,561.7520%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc01f…cd8ebacked No20c28,863$5,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,8007027.1%19 W · 51 L+0.2wins0.00per pick27cpaid-36.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15dc…77c8backed Yes76c28,752$21,903 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,849.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0267…7f7ebacked Yes74c27,673$20,563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,109.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa726…99dabacked No1c27,345$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$210.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5f88…1d4dbacked Yes20c26,013$5,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,743.961428.6%4 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick30cpaid-29%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6f40…eb64backed Yes66c23,434$15,537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,897.256250%31 W · 31 L+7.9wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No1c22,650$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.9892.2%2 W · 87 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-80.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x21c0…4827backed Yes24c21,719$5,128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,590.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+185.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3dca…3c13backed Yes60c21,679$13,076 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,602.916756.7%38 W · 29 L+11.4wins+0.17per pick40cpaid+26.1%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0x3cae…9060backed No1c21,079$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No32c20,954$6,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,783.06933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-39.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9b5…9db1backed No30c20,908$6,303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,302.5112249.2%60 W · 62 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ea0…fab9backed No1c20,721$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3989…27b1backed Yes54c20,644$11,165 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,478.292147.6%10 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.13per pick35cpaid+25.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1999…0cdfbacked Yes72c20,569$14,715 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,853.272100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+121.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb60…71f5backed Yes53c19,789$10,413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,376.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No13c19,112$2,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,446.062751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd1c5…3d6fbacked Yes59c18,643$10,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,705.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+70.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30e3…700dbacked Yes77c17,680$13,643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,037.75560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xde97…e43ebacked Yes35c17,284$6,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,177.732045%9 W · 11 L+3.3wins+0.17per pick28cpaid+49.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcb25…5ab5backed Yes22c17,232$3,874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,357.73757.1%4 W · 3 L+3.1wins+0.44per pick13cpaid+418.8%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc9d0…2ed4backed No14c16,958$2,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,371.4930%0 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd33c…2ab5backed Yes30c16,846$5,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,775.92250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick22cpaid+66.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc954…6609backed No35c16,663$5,852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,851.81837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick44cpaid-41.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61ea…bbf7backed Yes70c16,247$11,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,831.56580%4 W · 1 L+1.7wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+53.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf72c…0fe6backed No2c15,912$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3e0a…b9ccbacked Yes42c15,876$6,721 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,154.912433.3%8 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes63c15,818$9,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,857.58821.6%19 W · 69 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-53.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9a5…57f5backed Yes62c15,309$9,483 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,826.411100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9807…529abacked No8c15,130$1,173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed3…5cebbacked Yes65c15,042$9,843 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,199.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-23.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7664…2e50backed Yes78c15,000$11,750 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,2503234.4%11 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick39cpaid-21.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9c37…f507backed No14c14,967$2,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,120.1740%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfc04…4f75backed Yes72c14,895$10,681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,213.911080%8 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.19per pick61cpaid+24.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xf009…12c6backed No9c14,604$1,363 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,362.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e59…7b8bbacked No10c14,588$1,470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,470.34128.3%1 W · 11 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick13cpaid-87.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed No18c14,403$2,584 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,583.99837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-48.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1229…df38backed Yes46c14,300$6,540 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,760.211421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-63.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0afa…cf79backed Yes68c14,183$9,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,475.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+112.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x72f7…92f7backed Yes34c13,529$4,552 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,977.063941%16 W · 23 L+4.3wins+0.11per pick30cpaid+30.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd9f9…3383backed Yes32c13,324$4,271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,053.56333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick25cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2521…66e0backed No11c13,231$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.37728.6%2 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick13cpaid+41.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…2202backed Yes70c13,096$9,224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,872.158456%47 W · 37 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick45cpaid+24.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x54ce…9f80backed Yes42c12,911$5,385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,525.69785.7%6 W · 1 L+2.9wins+0.41per pick45cpaid+130.9%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd24b…ef76backed Yes77c12,586$9,656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,929.924348.8%21 W · 22 L+3.5wins+0.08per pick41cpaid+3.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0490…c81fbacked No65c12,528$8,150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,150.0414330.8%44 W · 99 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick28cpaid+104.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed Yes79c12,500$9,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,586.998047.5%38 W · 42 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8c…e36fbacked No15c12,469$1,870 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,870.321442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x692b…14e3backed No11c12,461$1,379 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.9620%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x143d…5fd5backed Yes19c12,269$2,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,998.36366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.27per pick40cpaid+133.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x37e3…551fbacked No12c12,250$1,518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,517.7120%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e42…49edbacked No42c12,001$5,012 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,012.32633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aac…0e7abacked No2c11,890$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.7911.1%1 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.23per pick34cpaid-74.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x88e3…384ebacked No11c11,100$1,272 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,272.081526.7%4 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick35cpaid-58.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdf70…5e92backed Yes36c10,841$3,854 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,987.471353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.08per pick46cpaid+61.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7516…8c8cbacked Yes66c10,646$7,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,646.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+52.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes15c10,610$1,583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,026.995121.6%11 W · 40 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick20cpaid-37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e60…ae42backed No35c10,331$3,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,634.051414.3%2 W · 12 L-2.5wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-79.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7a5d…460fbacked Yes13c10,075$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,775.42333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+158.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked Yes22c9,980$2,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,749.5332354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes73c9,835$7,138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,697.47633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-18.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x326a…0065backed No3c9,504$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.3510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5bbd…9ec2backed No39c9,304$3,590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,590.241250%6 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+87.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa328…4977backed No37c9,290$3,431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,431.1613243.9%58 W · 74 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4eaa…9dd9backed Yes21c9,095$1,882 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,212.821612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick14cpaid-26.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a0f…f2e0backed No10c9,044$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x29d1…32f4backed Yes78c9,009$7,068 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,940.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-14.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead0…9b88backed Yes18c8,987$1,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,405.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+468.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x72e2…6610backed Yes62c8,877$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,376.622100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf360…4d73backed No22c8,560$1,883 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,883.19333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick20cpaid+35.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No28c8,521$2,344 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,344.1111741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x814d…b842backed No2c8,414$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.544035%14 W · 26 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick29cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb5f1…364bbacked No14c8,395$1,181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.4240%0 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8329…357ebacked No12c8,390$1,007 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,006.8120%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Yes49c8,360$4,136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,223.97966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+66.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No50c8,150$4,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,101.2988448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x585b…753fbacked No65c8,150$5,320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,320.385226.9%14 W · 38 L-5.2wins-0.10per pick37cpaid-37.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c8,006$2,404 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,403.9652850.8%268 W · 260 L+20.9wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf293…65eebacked Yes66c8,000$5,280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,7201100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes27c7,907$2,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,796.3145723.2%106 W · 351 L-15.8wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-35%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.