World Politics · resolved market
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xba75e6ba41372e351ed4755f183c1cdb082bd7cf6182a6d80dc445869c09de10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,931,060
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $955,748
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,931,060 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 143,498$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.5 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc524…75a2backed Yes | 0c | 105,011$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.01 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 88,749$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.75 | 46 | 0%0 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…9754backed Yes | 0c | 86,935$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.1 | 58 | 3.4%2 W · 56 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 75,405$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.48 | 361 | 4.4%16 W · 345 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a81…58b0backed Yes | 0c | 48,493$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.49 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb78f…4f48backed Yes | 0c | 31,492$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.43 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 0c | 21,105$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x907d…20c4backed Yes | 0c | 19,997$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 41 | 0%0 W · 41 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…d762backed Yes | 0c | 19,733$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked Yes | 0c | 17,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd675…153dbacked Yes | 0c | 16,982$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x673b…93f0backed Yes | 1c | 15,232$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.26 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebaa…abacbacked Yes | 0c | 14,999$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd0…c6a7backed Yes | 0c | 12,847$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.06 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -78.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…662dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,417$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 12,221$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.22 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c2c…407ebacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 110 | 0%0 W · 110 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9875…4b40backed Yes | 0c | 11,821$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdab5…e252backed Yes | 0c | 11,460$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 10,613$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 10,113$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 169 | 1.8%3 W · 166 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x275d…6b0cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 9,554$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.22 | 55 | 0%0 W · 55 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 1c | 7,812$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.97 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa9…4baabacked Yes | 0c | 7,595$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46ce…c842backed Yes | 1c | 7,267$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 8cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5940…37cdbacked Yes | 0c | 6,495$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0f…a189backed Yes | 0c | 6,438$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db8…7eb2backed Yes | 0c | 6,394$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…3c0dbacked Yes | 0c | 6,394$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79c4…f671backed Yes | 0c | 6,394$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe346…1d7abacked Yes | 0c | 6,176$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…7185backed Yes | 0c | 6,146$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd2d…f552backed Yes | 0c | 5,995$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06c0…e7b1backed Yes | 0c | 5,995$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d0…b18bbacked Yes | 0c | 5,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2a33backed Yes | 0c | 5,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7482…a3babacked Yes | 0c | 5,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc3…05acbacked Yes | 0c | 5,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a7d…2562backed Yes | 0c | 5,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x547e…87a6backed Yes | 0c | 5,895$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2788…3c32backed Yes | 0c | 5,645$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30d8…7185backed Yes | 0c | 5,645$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…6c42backed Yes | 0c | 5,474$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 5,320$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb928…fba7backed Yes | 0c | 5,279$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f2…de87backed Yes | 0c | 5,279$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c56…3656backed Yes | 0c | 5,169$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34c8…d6ddbacked Yes | 0c | 5,150$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe65…e6a4backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e7…8fd4backed Yes | 0c | 4,506$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb13…a06abacked Yes | 0c | 4,496$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 4,017$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x886c…4db1backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc124…2280backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf35…4300backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b16…3302backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064a…e820backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c1d…a294backed Yes | 0c | 3,534$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…500ebacked Yes | 0c | 3,508$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60fd…89a9backed Yes | 0c | 3,431$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 135 | 7.4%10 W · 125 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd59e…88c1backed Yes | 0c | 3,416$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a8a…0064backed Yes | 0c | 3,409$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe382…4e25backed Yes | 0c | 3,381$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed Yes | 2c | 2,799$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.13 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed Yes | 1c | 2,627$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 69 | 14.5%10 W · 59 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Yes | 0c | 2,500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5caf…5470backed Yes | 1c | 1,630$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.12 | 22 | 9.1%2 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -81.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,510$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2794…c5cfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,164$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e11…b846backed Yes | 6c | 230$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff19…d086backed Yes | 17c | 107.19$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?this page
- Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?Yes won
- Will Carlos Felipe Córdoba win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Claudia López win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Daniel Quintero win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will David Luna Sánchez win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Enrique Peñalosa win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Gustavo Bolívar win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Carlos Pinzón win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Daniel Oviedo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Juan Manuel Galán win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Mauricio Cardenas win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Miguel Uribe Turbay win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Paloma Valencia win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Roy Barreras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Sergio Fajardo win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
- Will Vicky Dávila win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.