World Politics · resolved market
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b33eda386e6fca9b5c73c57fea3f3bec863e17f9d483a0f30515913783cf24f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,669,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,669,542 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 615 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked Yes | 4c | 81,176$2,974 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78,202.82 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked No | 1c | 75,848$737 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.89 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7177…ddefbacked Yes | 20c | 70,944$14,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56,789.1 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +6.3wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 56c | 64,704$36,098 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28,605.41 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked No | 10c | 49,400$5,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,015.27 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked Yes | 51c | 45,144$23,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,935.51 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff8…6a6cbacked No | 3c | 22,704$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 76c | 21,167$15,994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,173.45 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked No | 0c | 19,417$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.42 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 68c | 16,863$11,393 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,469.83 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed Yes | 16c | 13,045$2,114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,931.3 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…ea89backed Yes | 25c | 12,641$3,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,432.3 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 48c | 12,424$5,969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,969.04 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed No | 5c | 12,092$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked Yes | 47c | 11,986$5,587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,399.36 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…cbd0backed No | 71c | 10,706$7,629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,628.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x81ab…ba97backed Yes | 38c | 10,480$4,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,467.4 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x562f…e46fbacked Yes | 63c | 10,287$6,471 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,816.17 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe86c…739bbacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b3…1426backed No | 0c | 9,997$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.65 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb74d…33ddbacked No | 2c | 9,854$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked No | 1c | 9,266$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.36 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed No | 17c | 9,023$1,489 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,489.19 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 24c | 8,855$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.74 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed Yes | 80c | 8,729$6,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,774.78 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 32c | 8,542$2,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,802.1 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…01a5backed No | 6c | 8,114$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 56c | 6,966$3,908 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,057.81 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed No | 2c | 6,870$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed No | 60c | 6,782$4,079 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,078.58 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…e722backed Yes | 14c | 6,565$909 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,656.31 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.0wins | -0.30per pick | 40cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…68e3backed No | 22c | 6,277$1,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,373 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 5c | 6,100$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,807.99 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17ed…c087backed No | 1c | 6,000$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81 | 86 | 41.9%36 W · 50 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 58c | 5,840$3,367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,473 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098e…f289backed Yes | 49c | 5,530$2,692 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,837.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 36c | 5,403$1,940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,940.02 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 54c | 5,188$2,827 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,360.87 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93a0…74debacked Yes | 21c | 5,102$1,063 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,039.04 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf70…5e92backed No | 52c | 4,881$2,562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,562.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93bd…59cebacked No | 4c | 4,315$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.23 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25a4…2694backed Yes | 79c | 4,300$3,392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.48 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x612f…aa53backed Yes | 13c | 4,177$538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,638.74 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3696…69cebacked No | 26c | 3,840$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$982.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 60cpaid | -64%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed No | 31c | 3,817$1,183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,183.36 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 55c | 3,807$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,729.34 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 67c | 3,780$2,546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,545.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…589cbacked Yes | 40c | 3,750$1,514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,236.35 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +189.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed No | 12c | 3,472$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.29 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c8…b981backed No | 3c | 3,100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed Yes | 31c | 3,000$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,064 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…2f47backed No | 22c | 2,950$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b1a…4221backed No | 49c | 2,944$1,434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,433.91 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 46c | 2,706$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.1 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc958…5fa9backed No | 6c | 2,664$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.39 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed No | 8c | 2,645$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.51 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x134f…f836backed No | 1c | 2,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 46c | 2,586$1,190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,396.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 76c | 2,415$1,826 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.93 | 192 | 37.5%72 W · 120 L | -6.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked No | 48c | 2,376$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,131.82 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 19c | 2,352$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.68 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 50c | 2,351$1,176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,175.76 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 37c | 2,342$867 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$867.35 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2253…a8dfbacked Yes | 4c | 2,307$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,208.97 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +533.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf041…dde5backed Yes | 72c | 2,278$1,636 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.98 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked No | 58c | 2,249$1,309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,309.36 | 367 | 42.5%156 W · 211 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0bf…5d96backed No | 30c | 2,220$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.86 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8fa…b3cebacked No | 2c | 2,199$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…11f5backed Yes | 25c | 2,124$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,595.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9e…00debacked Yes | 77c | 2,047$1,566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$480.34 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…b4a8backed Yes | 5c | 1,997$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,897.21 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +565.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed No | 45c | 1,959$879 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$879.4 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…1ff6backed Yes | 55c | 1,939$1,068 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$870.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…4f6abacked Yes | 56c | 1,888$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.25 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +42%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 54c | 1,844$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$843.85 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked No | 57c | 1,822$1,045 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,045.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc412…592dbacked No | 37c | 1,800$669 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$668.8 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +4.1wins | +0.14per pick | 23cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4b…541bbacked Yes | 24c | 1,729$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,321.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 39cpaid | +161.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 73c | 1,720$1,252 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$468.28 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6171…3e77backed Yes | 40c | 1,637$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bef…36debacked No | 21c | 1,569$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.54 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +19%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8b…facdbacked Yes | 55c | 1,567$859 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -73.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5421…449cbacked Yes | 32c | 1,546$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,055.08 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +6.7wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xeca0…e8f8backed Yes | 46c | 1,534$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$834.22 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb09d…1e8ebacked Yes | 63c | 1,533$961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$572.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e26…2020backed Yes | 5c | 1,532$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,460.14 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +14.6wins | +0.34per pick | 24cpaid | +200.9%equal weight | 74+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes | 64c | 1,510$964 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.84 | 160 | 29.4%47 W · 113 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed No | 27c | 1,483$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.63 | 96 | 27.1%26 W · 70 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked No | 27c | 1,448$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.59 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaec3…22dfbacked Yes | 66c | 1,437$942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.25 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -4.5wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 77c | 1,436$1,109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.11 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x870a…bd43backed No | 11c | 1,420$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.5 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 19cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…a469backed Yes | 54c | 1,404$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$649.01 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0650…6875backed Yes | 57c | 1,376$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 68c | 1,324$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425.47 | 140 | 27.9%39 W · 101 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb9…7b80backed Yes | 72c | 1,287$922 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.3 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…7384backed Yes | 3c | 1,286$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,246.39 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 51cpaid | +447.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…e155backed No | 2c | 1,256$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15d9…6c00backed Yes | 80c | 1,253$999 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 30c | 1,241$371 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.71 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.