World Politics · resolved market
Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabe1486b141aac413c96286eb3e4a2beffeccd3480431d239fadd0cddbc96143
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,243,516
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,243,516 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 700 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a4c…532bbacked No | 4c | 130,886$5,364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125,521.65 | 55 | 21.8%12 W · 43 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f0…529ebacked Yes | 1c | 121,524$843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$843.16 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c01…1291backed Yes | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed No | 35c | 73,014$25,528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47,485.87 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4c…dbd5backed Yes | 34c | 72,778$25,038 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,038.25 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +62.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf19…6402backed Yes | 70c | 57,047$40,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40,189.86 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9693…5224backed Yes | 30c | 52,293$15,740 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,740.19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…cb5fbacked Yes | 22c | 49,299$10,679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,678.95 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc03…804cbacked No | 34c | 42,013$14,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,795.01 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 33c | 35,737$11,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,637.66 | 121 | 33.1%40 W · 81 L | +4.6wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 1c | 31,742$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.06 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd3…bf4dbacked No | 70c | 30,269$21,158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,110.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 73cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e72…b49cbacked Yes | 4c | 23,978$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.97 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 69c | 23,407$16,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,213.28 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…ead2backed Yes | 1c | 22,763$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae12…cbd0backed Yes | 68c | 21,952$15,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,026.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.4wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x207d…52d7backed No | 70c | 21,942$15,337 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,604.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1c…4d4dbacked Yes | 4c | 20,824$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.99 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 1c | 19,669$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.66 | 380 | 23.9%91 W · 289 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…5c5dbacked No | 12c | 18,534$2,194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,340.38 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +163.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae93…7120backed Yes | 6c | 18,167$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09bb…f8b1backed Yes | 69c | 17,420$12,013 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,013.49 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f9…1245backed No | 58c | 14,584$8,515 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,069.33 | 180 | 36.7%66 W · 114 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3372…6d37backed Yes | 19c | 13,492$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e5…95e7backed Yes | 68c | 12,986$8,843 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,842.91 | 150 | 26%39 W · 111 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6640…2202backed No | 67c | 12,054$8,054 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,999.74 | 84 | 56%47 W · 37 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +24.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x01da…ea89backed No | 21c | 12,020$2,549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,471.19 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2c…dc30backed Yes | 55c | 11,741$6,458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,458.31 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 11,375$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.92 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7c3…1d43backed Yes | 4c | 11,314$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9f…7f50backed Yes | 79c | 10,987$8,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,647.64 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5b94…1c4bbacked Yes | 14c | 10,557$1,504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,503.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f23fbacked Yes | 4c | 10,453$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.36 | 182 | 14.8%27 W · 155 L | +11.4wins | +0.06per pick | 9cpaid | +218.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb8e4…2daebacked Yes | 78c | 9,565$7,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,418.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 21c | 9,561$1,966 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,595.43 | 121 | 29.8%36 W · 85 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2b0…b26bbacked Yes | 41c | 9,092$3,694 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,694.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d4…6dddbacked Yes | 50c | 8,751$4,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,385.79 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 45c | 8,218$3,724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,723.7 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed No | 62c | 8,204$5,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,123.35 | 86 | 40.7%35 W · 51 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…f3c8backed Yes | 3c | 7,991$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb18…195bbacked Yes | 33c | 7,794$2,588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,588.47 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b37…6952backed Yes | 18c | 7,530$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.43 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7816…af9dbacked Yes | 34c | 7,299$2,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,459.43 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749a…17b6backed Yes | 45c | 6,998$3,131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,131.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aae…d545backed Yes | 0c | 6,871$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…4919backed Yes | 15c | 6,788$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,014.86 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e88…301cbacked Yes | 73c | 6,500$4,774 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,773.64 | 83 | 21.7%18 W · 65 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbff…5830backed No | 32c | 6,239$1,975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,263.97 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.17per pick | 60cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x67ac…edf1backed No | 40c | 5,687$2,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,395.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -38%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 13c | 5,486$707 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$707.39 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x745c…15fcbacked Yes | 34c | 5,443$1,824 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,824.23 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +195.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99c9backed Yes | 20c | 5,407$1,100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,100 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 18c | 5,380$960 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$959.65 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x48c6…d483backed Yes | 9c | 5,363$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.08 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf42f…a6a7backed No | 39c | 5,264$2,078 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,186.61 | 197 | 42.6%84 W · 113 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72f4…22e3backed Yes | 29c | 5,199$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,520 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x797d…4019backed Yes | 22c | 5,035$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…6e02backed Yes | 2c | 5,001$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f0b…75c6backed Yes | 3c | 4,998$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c16…a5e3backed Yes | 31c | 4,884$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf350…f3ffbacked Yes | 76c | 4,703$3,555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,555.4 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 62cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 1c | 4,594$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.36 | 444 | 0.7%3 W · 441 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | -87.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb157…f7cebacked Yes | 20c | 4,531$900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$900 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc603…6b37backed Yes | 54c | 4,515$2,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,428.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…ef38backed No | 37c | 4,427$1,647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,779.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.66per pick | 34cpaid | +194.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6902…678cbacked Yes | 5c | 4,339$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x88ad…f719backed Yes | 10c | 4,289$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.05 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +54.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8e…776ebacked Yes | 61c | 4,111$2,515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,514.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.42per pick | 67cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x26a6…0468backed Yes | 31c | 4,013$1,230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,229.75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…9871backed Yes | 48c | 4,000$1,924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,923.99 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked Yes | 2c | 3,993$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5db…d54ebacked Yes | 13c | 3,948$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49bd…5a7ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,687$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc7…116fbacked No | 64c | 3,499$2,224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.91 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…2f47backed Yes | 18c | 3,427$632 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$632.14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64be…c653backed Yes | 67c | 3,395$2,263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,263.25 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 64c | 3,245$2,075 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,169.89 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x540c…a634backed No | 55c | 3,229$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,455.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +42.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4028…1566backed Yes | 15c | 3,212$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$497.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629b…995abacked Yes | 27c | 3,159$845 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.37 | 432 | 43.1%186 W · 246 L | +29.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f5…137ebacked Yes | 39c | 3,111$1,203 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,203.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ab5…e56fbacked No | 40c | 3,086$1,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.52 | 73 | 57.5%42 W · 31 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +53.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked No | 22c | 3,011$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,359.26 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe0d…52d2backed Yes | 32c | 3,000$957 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$957.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c08…11f5backed Yes | 3c | 2,959$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 15cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x800e…01a5backed Yes | 4c | 2,909$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 8c | 2,906$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.81 | 39 | 17.9%7 W · 32 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 12cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef21…9d7bbacked Yes | 3c | 2,854$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9912…1537backed Yes | 18c | 2,742$485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$485 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e64…29ccbacked Yes | 59c | 2,740$1,614 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,614.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdfd…2f19backed Yes | 11c | 2,726$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 32c | 2,723$881 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.76 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked No | 8c | 2,660$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,448.77 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 12cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 58c | 2,625$1,520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,519.74 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb52f…954fbacked Yes | 40c | 2,615$1,048 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,047.86 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ff…8ed7backed No | 77c | 2,598$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$598.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Yes | 43c | 2,535$1,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,093.42 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1e…2f70backed Yes | 3c | 2,505$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06a2…8015backed Yes | 23c | 2,437$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.29 | 35 | 54.3%19 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8764…353abacked Yes | 13c | 2,374$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?this page
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Yes won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.