World Politics · resolved market
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7ee0528c04c33761ec545da538ffeabcae04602bc19c9e035cdafb697dae325
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $272,784
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $272,784 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12df…a21bbacked Yes | 0c | 115,969$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.29 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf09…cd17backed Yes | 0c | 58,637$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.64 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9eb5…90e5backed Yes | 0c | 57,676$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.55 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0df…b071backed Yes | 0c | 56,908$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked Yes | 1c | 49,379$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.27 | 40 | 7.5%3 W · 37 L | -4.1wins | -0.10per pick | 18cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2479…deedbacked Yes | 0c | 48,936$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.94 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 0c | 40,679$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.32 | 113 | 1.8%2 W · 111 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +96.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b42…229ebacked Yes | 0c | 34,160$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.82 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6872…876fbacked Yes | 0c | 23,432$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.13 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf391…8307backed Yes | 0c | 19,559$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.12 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked Yes | 0c | 17,564$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 0c | 17,252$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.41 | 134 | 4.5%6 W · 128 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ce6…6d84backed Yes | 1c | 16,725$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd02e…1228backed Yes | 0c | 14,973$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd0f9…db0abacked Yes | 0c | 11,956$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc512…6d3dbacked Yes | 0c | 11,706$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.71 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7db…8aadbacked Yes | 2c | 8,208$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e4…471abacked Yes | 1c | 7,807$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 150 | 22.7%34 W · 116 L | +8.6wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +43%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…0047backed Yes | 2c | 7,443$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf27d…e6d3backed Yes | 2c | 6,657$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 51 | 21.6%11 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc9…b8a8backed Yes | 0c | 5,500$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb3…573abacked Yes | 0c | 5,010$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +54%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a9…2f47backed Yes | 0c | 5,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b17…51b1backed Yes | 2c | 4,400$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.29 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 1c | 3,927$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 234 | 4.3%10 W · 224 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1963…5beabacked Yes | 6c | 3,586$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.28 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +87.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d6…58f0backed Yes | 1c | 2,904$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 3.6%1 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6bb…4c09backed Yes | 0c | 2,675$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5e6…45f8backed Yes | 1c | 2,358$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 27cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 2,147$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.52 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 1c | 2,075$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,024$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.32 | 30 | 10%3 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -82.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xceba…f75bbacked Yes | 1c | 1,917$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5494…85febacked Yes | 1c | 1,766$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24a5…b68dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,395$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a4…4ef2backed Yes | 1c | 1,381$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.13 | 37 | 10.8%4 W · 33 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +67.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19de…d65fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,260$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…9c9dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,200$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec45…5e44backed Yes | 1c | 1,073$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed Yes | 2c | 619.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 115 | 2.6%3 W · 112 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -47%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked Yes | 2c | 500.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 80 | 3.8%3 W · 77 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24ad…292cbacked Yes | 4c | 476.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed Yes | 4c | 347.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 241 | 10.8%26 W · 215 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7844…8c8dbacked Yes | 4c | 266.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?this page
- Will BSW win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?Yes won
- Will SPD win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Greens win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
- Will The Left win the most seats in the 2026 Baden-Württemberg parliamentary elections?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.