Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd73f60114a0e7169a55082daef1228cb27fa50c939eea22cb0589f6bac6ce5d3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,670,502
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,480,359
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,670,502 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 2,031 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x96db…11d9backed No | 0c | 997,300$997 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$997.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 615,993$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.99 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6330…6841backed No | 0c | 400,000$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 0c | 318,045$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.05 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7be8…b383backed No | 0c | 300,206$902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$901.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…f18bbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed Yes | 50c | 284,941$142,675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142,266.45 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x36c3…faf7backed No | 0c | 281,710$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…d447backed No | 0c | 248,790$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.79 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.28per pick | 40cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcbc3…d601backed No | 0c | 223,000$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 25c | 172,672$43,667 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,667.26 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked No | 40c | 161,904$65,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65,189.81 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 78c | 159,336$123,719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,617.57 | 643 | 39.3%253 W · 390 L | -59.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1a00…b948backed No | 0c | 150,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13cd…0721backed No | 0c | 138,280$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.28 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -65.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…93a8backed No | 64c | 113,566$72,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72,632.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 38c | 111,632$42,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42,172.38 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…fb79backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe931…c40bbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…5fc4backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.23per pick | 17cpaid | +109.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…6390backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…9766backed No | 0c | 100,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3b23…3fe4backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb455…d61cbacked No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b0c…b1b3backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8c0…04b9backed No | 0c | 99,500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 0c | 98,500$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.5 | 107 | 37.4%40 W · 67 L | -6.6wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf49b…6fa1backed No | 0c | 95,280$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 61c | 85,945$52,815 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33,129.11 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed No | 10c | 85,265$8,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,651.86 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66b5…1875backed No | 0c | 83,333$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7158…5439backed No | 66c | 76,562$50,506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50,505.74 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -4.5wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 64c | 74,687$48,083 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,604.22 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3018…bae6backed No | 0c | 70,000$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 22cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 4c | 69,248$2,484 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.48 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddf4…2680backed Yes | 67c | 63,966$42,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21,266 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x866f…add9backed No | 0c | 61,737$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 62c | 59,685$37,064 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22,621.23 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 54,985$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.93 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8423…007bbacked No | 0c | 54,550$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.55 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…c454backed No | 39c | 50,316$19,602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,601.98 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4e0…6392backed No | 0c | 50,094$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60a…5a90backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ea…167bbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab0…2ff9backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bda…c6acbacked No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eac…989ebacked No | 0c | 49,860$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd624…a0f8backed Yes | 45c | 42,970$19,534 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,436.62 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x23c9…7095backed No | 0c | 42,950$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8f…4ca5backed No | 0c | 40,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd22…ad91backed No | 54c | 36,413$19,770 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,769.82 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -47%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 69c | 36,165$25,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,000 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 66c | 35,828$23,469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,358.81 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c91…4bbbbacked No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…4a3cbacked No | 0c | 35,000$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 14cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad9…4efebacked No | 0c | 34,563$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 23cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 56c | 32,467$18,092 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14,374.67 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9d2…fb68backed No | 0c | 32,000$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…3b7ebacked No | 0c | 31,464$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…9a0bbacked No | 0c | 31,378$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 64c | 30,008$19,180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,827.4 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b2…8958backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.21per pick | 12cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0e…4651backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b4c…649dbacked No | 0c | 29,500$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 20cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d1b…6cc0backed Yes | 72c | 28,759$20,839 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,919.33 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +191%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…98c7backed No | 70c | 28,500$19,943 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,943.43 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9f…08f9backed No | 0c | 27,000$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2599…9a4abacked No | 0c | 26,948$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1270…b004backed No | 0c | 26,667$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5835…3beebacked No | 42c | 25,631$10,862 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,862.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52f5…19dabacked Yes | 61c | 25,333$15,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,907.81 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa94f…cb08backed No | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40f1…15f9backed No | 53c | 24,608$13,086 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13,086.47 | 45 | 26.7%12 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4938…a5debacked No | 69c | 24,584$17,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,023.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…b42fbacked No | 0c | 24,000$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf771…f65fbacked No | 0c | 23,966$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c64…2099backed No | 30c | 23,960$7,136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,136.25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c4c…cb39backed No | 23c | 22,453$5,155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,154.88 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee0…b04cbacked No | 0c | 22,010$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c4c…fa65backed No | 0c | 21,667$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5194…4d60backed No | 0c | 21,054$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5666…c630backed No | 32c | 21,000$6,720 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,720 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c0…5099backed No | 0c | 21,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 28c | 20,981$5,889 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,092.39 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b14…d0b1backed No | 34c | 20,434$6,857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,856.51 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 36cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e89…5593backed Yes | 74c | 20,391$15,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,390.37 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d9e…62afbacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -22%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x283d…221abacked No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…0ae8backed No | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x803f…6416backed No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.42per pick | 25cpaid | +126.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x38b7…1b4dbacked No | 0c | 20,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 20cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 61c | 19,923$12,251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,672.41 | 312 | 41.7%130 W · 182 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 37cpaid | +66.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe3e0…167ebacked No | 56c | 19,518$11,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,000 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 4c | 19,279$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.8 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ed…fdf0backed No | 68c | 18,666$12,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12,759.39 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdece…9d34backed No | 0c | 18,500$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dce…f5b7backed No | 0c | 18,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…4fb6backed No | 0c | 17,940$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.