Middle East · resolved market
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5c2e6aef8af5931e9bfa3750364626d754531d2fada2885d45c356b175962a25
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,450,416
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,122,551
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,450,416 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 5,574 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xccc1…889dbacked No | 0c | 599,592$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.59 | 18 | 16.7%3 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…2c73backed Yes | 27c | 519,185$141,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377,479.8 | 377 | 40.1%151 W · 226 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a57…42dcbacked No | 0c | 400,000$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cc1…b8dfbacked Yes | 8c | 395,480$31,927 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363,552.69 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +73%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72e4…740abacked Yes | 65c | 340,016$221,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118,707.93 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa0…f18bbacked No | 0c | 300,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 1cpaid | +852.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf17…97d1backed No | 1c | 244,831$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,842.13 | 113 | 34.5%39 W · 74 L | -7.5wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe885…38efbacked No | 19c | 204,318$38,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,225.1 | 48 | 39.6%19 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -30%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…462ebacked Yes | 43c | 203,403$87,658 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115,744.53 | 77 | 32.5%25 W · 52 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6480…8dc5backed No | 0c | 200,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 35 | 0%0 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 74c | 195,303$144,442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50,860.28 | 284 | 27.8%79 W · 205 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…fb79backed No | 0c | 193,400$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.4 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x123f…9cf1backed Yes | 72c | 166,643$120,716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,927.05 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c3d…5c6bbacked Yes | 70c | 162,755$114,564 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,190.63 | 511 | 38.7%198 W · 313 L | +18.7wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9648…6825backed No | 79c | 151,889$120,418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120,418.45 | 148 | 21.6%32 W · 116 L | -24.5wins | -0.17per pick | 38cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xab33…fed6backed No | 0c | 140,069$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88e2…7489backed Yes | 29c | 134,404$38,866 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95,537.47 | 86 | 33.7%29 W · 57 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…129abacked Yes | 55c | 134,213$73,419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60,793.1 | 59 | 54.2%32 W · 27 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa39…977fbacked No | 7c | 131,164$9,254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,253.61 | 88 | 17%15 W · 73 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa022…77f8backed Yes | 62c | 118,685$73,626 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45,059.37 | 89 | 37.1%33 W · 56 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c29…7570backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…d324backed No | 0c | 100,000$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8cce…5c11backed No | 59c | 97,038$57,219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57,219.13 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 62c | 93,234$57,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35,731.62 | 80 | 45%36 W · 44 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x207c…93a8backed No | 48c | 91,381$43,725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43,724.7 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9e…3a0ebacked Yes | 70c | 91,100$64,065 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,035.31 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 0c | 84,000$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc2f…10c7backed Yes | 35c | 80,161$27,976 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52,184.29 | 356 | 31.7%113 W · 243 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…9c23backed Yes | 61c | 77,643$47,037 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,606.21 | 35 | 62.9%22 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be8…9766backed No | 0c | 75,976$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.37per pick | 30cpaid | +54.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 0c | 75,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x162f…798dbacked Yes | 43c | 74,530$31,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42,562.1 | 166 | 38.6%64 W · 102 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d5e…66a4backed No | 0c | 72,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed87…788fbacked No | 1c | 66,782$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$419.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe54d…fdecbacked No | 60c | 62,567$37,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,808.36 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x35bb…009bbacked Yes | 73c | 60,822$44,163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,658.75 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…4597backed Yes | 18c | 59,341$10,493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48,848.67 | 126 | 54%68 W · 58 L | +18.8wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +128.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3e5b…073bbacked No | 68c | 56,972$38,657 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38,656.9 | 39 | 35.9%14 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked No | 20c | 56,916$11,287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,286.6 | 358 | 19%68 W · 290 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…6424backed No | 37c | 54,493$20,159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,158.51 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…5dc1backed No | 45c | 54,283$24,554 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,553.62 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 60cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5715…1616backed Yes | 17c | 52,367$8,686 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43,681.36 | 115 | 27%31 W · 84 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x614d…1546backed Yes | 43c | 51,298$22,012 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29,286.58 | 138 | 50.7%70 W · 68 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcb…6224backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e86…7816backed No | 0c | 50,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c1…154cbacked No | 49c | 45,901$22,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22,710.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3df…6f87backed No | 39c | 45,505$17,701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,700.71 | 73 | 11%8 W · 65 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 1c | 44,327$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$653.64 | 218 | 31.2%68 W · 150 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ae…98c7backed No | 51c | 42,953$21,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21,740.59 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -4.8wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde7b…5f4bbacked Yes | 46c | 42,816$19,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23,237.23 | 152 | 30.3%46 W · 106 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9fe…f135backed No | 38c | 42,042$16,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16,057.72 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cd0…d6aabacked No | 0c | 39,907$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 62c | 39,345$24,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,122.68 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…1292backed Yes | 66c | 37,159$24,667 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,492 | 96 | 47.9%46 W · 50 L | +8.0wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4478…02a4backed Yes | 22c | 35,476$7,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27,797.53 | 287 | 34.5%99 W · 188 L | +21.3wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4247…91c4backed No | 0c | 34,810$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +62%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x769a…1cbfbacked No | 13c | 34,770$4,375 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,375.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62cf…5826backed Yes | 64c | 34,534$22,232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,302.1 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e52…3b74backed No | 29c | 33,956$9,902 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,901.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4927…22a0backed No | 5c | 33,479$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +4.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +160.2%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb100…6461backed Yes | 61c | 32,340$19,655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,685.38 | 205 | 49.8%102 W · 103 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…17b0backed No | 20c | 32,272$6,543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,543.24 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | -3.6wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -59.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b7…60a4backed Yes | 37c | 31,178$11,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,527.35 | 225 | 47.1%106 W · 119 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +25%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…3b7ebacked No | 1c | 31,000$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…fd89backed No | 0c | 30,999$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0eba…9993backed No | 29c | 30,583$8,968 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,967.61 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc17c…6390backed No | 0c | 30,103$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5782…74e4backed No | 0c | 30,070$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.07 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…0ae8backed No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +22%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2b…233bbacked No | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 25cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e89…9a0bbacked No | 0c | 30,000$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…bc90backed No | 53c | 29,960$15,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,962.44 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -84%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7cb…d447backed Yes | 63c | 29,443$18,666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,776.85 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbc…5196backed No | 1c | 29,306$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +51.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbacd…ab35backed Yes | 56c | 29,304$16,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,908.71 | 489 | 23.5%115 W · 374 L | -14.3wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 79c | 29,152$23,052 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,099.87 | 197 | 39.1%77 W · 120 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca5c…6d24backed No | 40c | 28,502$11,318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,317.79 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…17aebacked Yes | 26c | 27,593$7,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20,313.8 | 215 | 21.9%47 W · 168 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ea…7a3dbacked Yes | 5c | 27,500$1,262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26,237.5 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.28per pick | 16cpaid | +284.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd0…0022backed No | 61c | 25,999$15,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,742.92 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd8…01f0backed No | 0c | 25,950$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.95 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e8…9fbdbacked No | 1c | 24,400$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.65 | 274 | 2.9%8 W · 266 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -58.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb886…81b3backed No | 28c | 23,983$6,744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,743.84 | 140 | 39.3%55 W · 85 L | +20.0wins | +0.14per pick | 25cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7d58…cfccbacked No | 4c | 23,423$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$870.23 | 153 | 38.6%59 W · 94 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32af…b42fbacked No | 0c | 23,000$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.15per pick | 10cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 26c | 22,871$6,039 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,831.36 | 207 | 36.2%75 W · 132 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc021…1fa8backed Yes | 47c | 22,752$10,759 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,992.98 | 108 | 37%40 W · 68 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x997d…a646backed No | 0c | 22,400$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe49…7a4cbacked No | 36c | 22,069$8,036 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,035.86 | 81 | 50.6%41 W · 40 L | +8.5wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x18f9…7bc4backed No | 23c | 21,682$4,990 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,990.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…31d4backed Yes | 7c | 21,540$1,555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,984.69 | 102 | 26.5%27 W · 75 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc19d…865ebacked Yes | 44c | 21,196$9,238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,958.15 | 179 | 34.6%62 W · 117 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e84…ef69backed No | 30c | 21,033$6,232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,232.35 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Yes | 63c | 20,995$13,126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,869.43 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -33.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e65…0f3cbacked No | 1c | 20,650$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.8 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 21cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x069a…eaa9backed No | 74c | 20,536$15,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,271.05 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 7c | 20,400$1,402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,401.58 | 197 | 6.6%13 W · 184 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 7cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dd1…a156backed No | 47c | 20,253$9,431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,430.78 | 155 | 41.9%65 W · 90 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1ca…1705backed Yes | 58c | 20,018$11,617 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8,401.8 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16f3…f491backed No | 0c | 19,900$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15?this page
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30?Yes won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 31?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 7?No won
- Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.